Exchange wheat prices

[farmaholic]

101....could you please chart KBOT, CBOT and MGEX wheat prices on one chart....is the MGEX spring wheat spread even or is it moving away from the classes of wheat traded on the other exchanges?

There is a difference in the kinds of wheat traded on those exchanges isn't there? Doesnt MinniWheats resemble ours the most?

[farmaholic]

I don't know if the request is relevant...

If it isn't can someone explain why there would be more than one exchange trading wheat futures.

[wmoebis]

I don't know if the request is relevant...

If it isn't can someone explain why there would be more than one exchange trading wheat futures.

CWRS is suppose to be cleanest, highest milling and baking quality in world. Why no separate exchange for it. Cadillac - Chevy.

[farming101]

2 charts. First one Minneapolis premium over Kansas, second one MW over Chicago. Both Dec 16 contracts.



Seem to have leveled off during October.
Minneapolis Hard Spring
Kansas Hard Winter
Chicago Soft Winter

Any trader interested in the actual specs of the wheat and delivery points will trade their favorite wheat.
Speculators trade anything that will make a profit and use Chicago a lot because it is the most widely traded, easier to get in and out of a trade. I would think a lot of international futures traders would use Chicago for the same reason even though it might not fit their specs very well.

[farmaholic]

Thank you 101.

So the spread for better quality milling wheat may have levelled off... I bet it holds.

Would be nice to see the whole wheat complex move up. I still say, the world may be awash in wheat but what quality wheat? That being said.... too much poor wheat will likely keep a lid on good wheat prices. Only so many high priced premium markets... too many price sensitive markets.

[bucket]

The annoying part is the Canadian grain cos wanted an open market but we're not obliged to make the Canadian wheat durum and barley exchanges in Winnipeg functioning so it would represent our quality grains.

[boarderbloke]

KCBT = hard red winter = southern plains
CBOT = soft winter = southern Midwest, Ohio valley
MGE = hard spring wheats = northern plains

Both links below are informative, USDA,

[URL="http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/background.aspx"]http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/background.aspx[/URL]

[URL="https://wayback.archive-it.org/5923/20120310141642/http://ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat/maps.htm"]https://wayback.archive-it.org/5923/20120310141642/http://ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat/maps.htm[/URL]

[farmaholic]

bucket.... as someone said.... Likely not fluid enough to be a "functioning" market. So we need to piggy back or take direction from other markets that aren't "dysfunctional"!

There are no Malt or Durum future contracts anywhere are there? No Flax, peas or lentils.

[bucket]

Farmaholic

Right....but the other day you posted port prices and it sems like a disconnect between what we are paid and what our grain is worth.


Basis is misreported daily.

As far as I know, we as farmers are paying freight to the port.


Should we not get a representative price for our product.

Just like autos, fertilizer etc.

[farmaholic]

bucket,

There is only one place the "shipper" can get the money from to ship that grain.... The Buyer won't pay the freight to port so guess who does. Ya, I know its not our wheat/grain anymore but....

[bucket]

Farmaholic

True but shouldn't the basis be better reflective of that?

In other words what is the basis calculation?

Is it port price minus prairie price or is it mpls plus fx minus who the **** knows?

Do you think any other commodities not know their actual costs?

Farmers don't whether it be the basis calculations that are not defined....or the quality spreads that can't be defined going forward.

[bucket]

On a different note.....everyone knows the struggles of western Canada. ....any updates and data on how full fertilizer sheds are?

[malleefarmer]

grain markets almost like clockwork 2 days up 3 days down repeat process rangebound it seems
see your dollars 74 ours is 76 so close. current new crop prices for me for standard wheat equate to $210 on farm as of yesterday 10.5 % proties wheat. And feed barley $160 Canola $500 on farm depending on oil content

[farming101]

So the spread for better quality milling wheat may have levelled off... I bet it holds.

Would be nice to see the whole wheat complex move up. I still say, the world may be awash in wheat but what quality wheat? That being said.... too much poor wheat will likely keep a lid on good wheat prices. Only so many high priced premium markets... too many price sensitive markets.

The spread may hold but as you say there may be a really thick ceiling that holds down prices.
Too early to tell but it looks like further rallies are on hold for a little while. MWZ has some good support at the $5.20 level which is where it is this Wed morning. Will be watching to see if it holds. It may indicate whether or not there will be any upward momentum into year end. Mar17 will be the lead month soon.

US soybean shipments are hogging the pipeline. Wheat has taken a back seat.