Stalled Canadian harvest and Canola prices

**farmaholic** · Oct 10, 2016, 10:39

....me the wet blanket! I looked at my neighbors standing canola on Friday... it looks white. Swath tops have a white look to them too....not snow but shelling. No matter how you slice this.... it isn't good! 4 million metric tonnes of canola still out!!! WOW. 4 mmt of an average(?) 18 mmt crop is like 22%. That's big! Guys are going to be grabbing the unharvested crop at every opportunity they get... can you imagine what the moisture levels of some of that harvested crop will be when it does come off!

I can't see prices for canola rising until the poor ****ers who have to deal with this high moisture canola have been royally ****ed by the "market". Ask bucket about idle terminal drying capacity. Who is going to want to sit on high moisture canola? Lots will be offered to the market.

**blackjack** · Oct 10, 2016, 10:46

All I know is from Hanna to west of Red Deer there was acres and acres of canola still out. With a forecast that is not very optimistic.

**Partners** · Oct 10, 2016, 10:49

Will be going up..but enough off to fill early contracts.

**blackpowder** · Oct 10, 2016, 11:53

There could very well be some out till spring by the way it looks today.
This areas canola mostly off. 4mmt out may only add $1? Narrow the crush basis.

**seabass** · Oct 10, 2016, 16:24

Some left out here. One guy has 6500ac to go aswell as oats and maybe some beans. Gonna be a dryer humming for a few weeks.
As long as the ground drys enuf to straight cut it. Price wont move til new year in my opinion.

**jake550** · Oct 10, 2016, 18:12

Lots around here. I'd guess 30-40% of the canola left.
Very little chance it'll get done. Very wet. Water laying in every low spot.

Stalled Canadian harvest and Canola prices