Stalled Canadian Harvest and Minni wheat prices.

[farmaholic]

Is there the slightest chance that the stalled Canadian Prairie harvest (and possibly the northern tier States) is having an affect on Minni wheat prices and futures? Two factors...is the rest of the wheat acres out in the field going to get harvested yet this year and we all know the quality in all likelihood won't be good milling quality wheat. So, little old Canadian supplies mean nothing?

I thought I heard Western Canada is 80% done harvest and like some others have stated the risk of not getting it this fall is more than real.

What else is pushing Minni wheat?

[riders2010]

Same
Can be said for most crops. Very little canary seed has been harvested. There are still peas out.
And canola is everywhere the standing ones that are flat in the ground with half a foot of snow on them should yield real well.

[Hamloc]

I read Bryce Knorr's commentary from Farm Futures magazine quite a bit. So I looked this morning he didn't mention Canada once and I quickly looked over his weekly wheat market review in which he looks at world wheat production,Canada was only mentioned in one graph out of 39 pages of analysis. Long answer short, no it does not appear that what is happening here matters, at least not yet.

[SASKFARMER3]

Three weeks left till its panic mode. 21 days and one ugly hurricane in the Gulf that is controlling our weather.
But we still have three weeks.

Get the dryers ready get the combines ready and when the bitch gives you a week go insane.

[bucket]

Where is the quality wheat?

Australia has had frosts. Canada wheat quality is questionable and getting more so with additional classes. ...not sure who is asking for more choice of wheats when the market doesn't price accordingly.

[westernvicki]

Canada recently separated the market class, and it looks like those of us who grew the "select" bread wheat may be able to pay the bills growing wheat this wheat class, this year, and hopefully next, if of course we managed to harvest in reasonable condition.

[bucket]

Westernvicki

Not to argue but it's odd that the wheats being reclassified used to be the majority of top quality canadian cwrs....world renowned.

[furrowtickler]

What varieties are in the "select " class you mention ?
There have been many changes the past few years and a short Coles notes version would be nice to see for many .
Unless of course they change the rules again next year.

[westernvicki]

The conversation last year was, the world doesn't want quality wheat so why grow it.
What's changed?
Spec trade might drive minni but do the real buyers really care, I don't know.

The world has learned to mill cheap wheat, as I understand high protein, high gluten wheat is a select ingredient added to cheap wheat to insure baking performance. Trends to produce volume wheat are global, then wheat crops bombarded by weather reduced quality, making the ingredient more in demand: equals shortages, revealing a gap in prices. Every dog gets its day, it seems, enjoy if you have the right breed.

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree if a farmer can get off the crop in reasonable condition a HRS should still pay more than the rest if it has protein and 2 or better.

[westernvicki]

Westernvicki

Not to argue but it's odd that the wheats being reclassified used to be the majority of top quality canadian cwrs....world renowned.

I am not a wheat expert by any means, but as I understand the "select" qualities of a CWRS distinguish by performance in dough. As I understand CIGI & the CGC tests each variety for performance to insure
Canadian CWRS performs in the manner expected by importers, when grouped together and sold in a bulk vessel. We have all read the complaints recently about Canadian wheat performance. As I say, I am far from the expert, but I did serve on the Western Standards Committee which is made up by grower groups and industry: the CGC were responding to the need to maintain Canadian standards globally. Do ask the Wheat Commission, Wheat Growers for their understanding.

It is not just yield, varietal properties are vital as an ingredient.

[westernvicki]

What varieties are in the "select " class you mention ?
There have been many changes the past few years and a short Coles notes version would be nice to see for many .
Unless of course they change the rules again next year.

"CWRS" the group of varieties in the variety guide, which I am calling "Select".

[bucket]

That's all good but what elevators in western Canada can segregate more classes of wheat when at the end of the day if they need it... its going in the same boat?

[wmoebis]

Wonder how much is the result of every elevator and terminal shipping right at the bottom of the grade. When concerns first arose CGC made statement that they were wrong quality was same. Then all of a sudden came up with new class for our most common varieties. If new class is equal to USA etc varieties they should be priced equal and CWRS should be commanding a premium. Isn't that what we were asking for when the CWB was under fire?

[farming101]

Up till now I think this is mainly a US thing. Canadian prices have benefited. If a lot of wheat stays out all winter here it will change the price picture.

US domestic use of HRSW is forecast to be up in 2016/17. It is probable that Canadian HRSW exports to the states will be up some this year. US wheat exports have been up compared to last year.


Also the Minneapolis cash price for delivery Chicago and beyond has seen an increasing spread over MWZ16 futures for Minneapolis/Duluth delivery. Over the years this spread has at times been a lot higher than it is now. It may be showing that domestic demand is increasing.