Cotton, are you thinking of a specific commodity?
It gets complicated.
The exchanges with large amounts of activity are the place where speculators go. They are liquid. Easy to get in and out of positions. When this is the case it can be difficult to make any conclusions about supply. Even with smaller exchanges like Minneapolis you need more info than the Futures contracts provide before you can make any conclusions about supply and demand.
There might be no shortage of supply, but it is in the wrong place. Oats a couple years ago is a good example. Plenty of supply in Canada but no way to get it to the mills or delivery warehouses.
It gets complicated.
The exchanges with large amounts of activity are the place where speculators go. They are liquid. Easy to get in and out of positions. When this is the case it can be difficult to make any conclusions about supply. Even with smaller exchanges like Minneapolis you need more info than the Futures contracts provide before you can make any conclusions about supply and demand.
There might be no shortage of supply, but it is in the wrong place. Oats a couple years ago is a good example. Plenty of supply in Canada but no way to get it to the mills or delivery warehouses.
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