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What's it going to be AB?

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    What's it going to be AB?

    Good analysis here on the fear mongering by the "right wing" parties. From soapboxsusan.com

    Fear mongering or hope mongering.

    “I think it has deteriorated into groundless name-calling, and it’s certainly not the strategy that I would take.”—Rachel Notley reflecting on comments made by Jim Prentice and Brian Jean

    To hear Jim Prentice and Brian Jean tell it, Rachel Notley’s plan to create a royalty commission and increase corporate taxes to 12% is an anti-free market experiment that will plunge Alberta into economic armageddon.

    Once everyone stops hyperventilating we’ll take stock…

    …okay, ready?

    Impact (or lack thereof) on Big Oil

    On the last day of the spring legislative session, Brian Mason tabled Bill 209 which would create a resource owners’ rights commission. The commission would include industry representatives, experts in energy economics and sustainable development, aboriginals and industry employees.

    Ms Notley “hopemongering”

    It would make recommendations on royalty structure, value-added processing of natural resources and proposals for long term sustainability. And most importantly, it is transparent. The commission is required to make regular reports and consult with Albertans on the management of their natural resources.

    Ms Notley assured Albertans that there would be no royalty changes in a low price environment.

    Nevertheless Mr Prentice and Mr Jean are running around with their hair on fire and one industry executive, Cenovus CEO Brian Ferguson, fretted that anything that makes Alberta uncompetitive will cause capital, investment and jobs to flow to other jurisdictions.

    Ms Notley was puzzled. “I don’t know how talking…with Albertans, in an independent, transparent accountable forum about a resource that belongs to Albertans is going to kill the industry.”

    Is Big Oil really rattled?

    The best way to find out whether Ms Notley overlooked a looming threat to Big Oil is to check out what Big Oil is saying about the royalty review and tax hike to its own analysts and investors.

    Securities laws require Big Oil to file its first quarter earnings results in mid to late April. These results must include a discussion about the risks Big Oil has identified in the foreseeable future.

    Guess what.

    Not one energy company, not even Cenovus, updated its boilerplate risk language to address this so-called threat to their bottom line.

    A quick look at the boilerplate, which covers every risk known to man including changes to royalty regimes, tax laws, computer hackers, terrorist attacks and alien invasions (sorry, as a corporate securities lawyer I always wanted to slip in the “alien” bit just to see if anyone actually reads boilerplate) reveals that no one other than Mr Prentice and Mr Jean is fussed about Ms Notley’s suggestion that Albertans deserve the right to control their natural resources and corporations can pay a little more in corporate taxes.

    Why me?

    Recently five Edmonton businessmen called a press conference urging Albertans to “think straight”. Apparently anyone who wants to vote NDP has lost his mind.

    They’re particularly concerned about the NDP’s plan to raise corporate taxes to 12%. One businessman, John Cameron (Keller Construction), said he couldn’t afford to pay two more percentage points in taxes or a minimum wage which will increase over time to $15.

    He lamented: “Why is it always the corporations? “Why? Why is it me?”

    Ashif Mawji (NPO Zero) said an increase in corporate taxes could result in reduced corporate contributions to charities like the Stollery Children’s Hospital.

    Anybody got a hanky?

    Right, let’s start at the top.

    The NDP plan will not destroy the Alberta Advantage. The all-in tax burden on individuals and corporations will remain the lowest in Canada because Alberta does not have a sales tax. The sales tax in other provinces ranges from a low of 5% to a high of 10%. I know it’s hard but do the math.
    The Stollery Children’s Hospital is not a charity, it’s a public service provided to sick children. Veiled (well, not so veiled) threats to stop charitable contributions is the last refuge of an illogical mind.
    Why not you? Just because the PC government showered corporations with tax breaks and short-changed public services in the process doesn’t make it right.
    Bottom line: if Alberta’s businesses are so fragile that they can’t survive a slight increase in corporate taxes and the obligation to pay a minimum wage that it still less than a living wage, it’s time these businessmen took another look at their business models. Albertans can’t afford to carry them any longer.

    Amateurs

    The most bizarre argument against voting NDP is that they’ve never been in government and the newbies will create instability at a time when one false step will result in…well, something horrible.

    This is rich coming from the PCs who’ve had four different premiers in four years (Stelmach, Redford, Hancock and Prentice), changed the way they did budgeted $45 billion in revenues three times in three years and lured 11 Wildrose MLAs, who were universally despised until defection day, into their caucus.

    The new NDP government will do what every new government has done in every other province across Canada. Ms Notley will review her mandate, name her cabinet and set an agenda to deliver on the promises she’s made to Albertans. Then she’ll ensure that the public service understands its mandate and gets cracking.

    Sure it’s a big job, but someone’s got to do it. Unfortunately for Mr Prentice and Mr Jean they’re so busy fearmongering that Albertans no longer believe they’re up to the task.

    May 5: fearmongering or hopemongering? What’s it going to be Alberta?

    #2
    Why worry about it if you're moving to MB? You'll soon get more political drama here.

    Comment


      #3
      Dreaming about the NDP in alberta is almost as real as the tooth fairy!!! I can't stop laughing at you lefties drooling over these poles. NDP getting in would be like Texans voting for gun control. Lol

      Comment


        #4
        Braveheart, I'm not worrying about it I'm interested in politics and concerned about the effect of politics on peoples lives. I may be moving from AB but we have friends and family here who will be affected.

        I'm also keenly following the UK election to be held on Thursday which looks to be a sea change in Scottish politics with the SNP looking like they will take most, if not all seats. Talk about lunatics taking over! I'm concerned for family and friends potentially affected by such a change too.

        Breadwinner I tend to agree with you, I don't see the predictions panning out for the NDP especially in rural AB. I certainly wouldn't waste a vote on the NDP in this constituency when there are bigger decisions to be made.

        That was a worthwhile article all the same - if you can read it with an open mind and not be blinded by "right or left wing" ideology.

        Comment


          #5
          A numbers guy.

          19 seats in Edmonton. Known result.

          25 seats in Calgary. Result less clear. Likely PC but depends on who gets vote out.

          Outside Calgary Edmonton - 43 seats. In Alberta Agriville members community. You know better than me.

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            #6
            Soapboxsusan, whoever she might be, has conveniently hand picked the questions.
            I doubt enough ridings will go ndp and hope I'm not wrong. Alberta is far more urban paycheck than us hillbillys realize.
            Interesting US statistic. Only 6% of private sector jobs are union so not sure if their power isnt overestimated by both the NDP and the rest of us.
            Is todays ndp the same CCF that built a wall around Sask? Or can we use Winnetoba as an example. A pent up desire for a voice could lead them to try the more stunned ideas.
            Either way thank a Trudeau for no Liberals to vote for. And thank Danielle for destroying any other opposition.
            And maybe we deserve the ndp because we allowed the old boys free rein the last decade.

            Comment


              #7
              Perhaps the most interesting number in Alberta will be voter turnout. Over 60 %?

              Alberta has an election with clear alternatives. Every riding will be fought out one vote at a time - participation is important.

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                #8
                Majority govts become Arrogant and Entitled.

                Albertans need to Stop electing majority govt.

                democracy only works well when there is some opposition in govt.
                Turf the bastards out and put in someone else but for gods sake don't give them all the seats. That's been done for 44 years and look where it's got you

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                  #9
                  I won't attempt to predict the outcome. Despite what the polling firms indicate, the PC's internal polling is giving them 50 to 55 seats. And they've been very accurate in the past. A lot is going to depend on how Calgary votes and the oil patch is in hyper-drive warning of the "Socialist hoard". Personally, the only party that scares me are the PC's if they get re-elected. The biggest thrill for me though is that we are having an election where it's not a given or a slam dunk. Those only happen once in a lifetime in AB.

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                    #10
                    I can't help thinking if Peter Lougheed was around he'd be voting NDp
                    This pc party is SO Far from his roots it's not funny

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                      #11
                      I don't understand why no one will just come out and say it. The PC Party is bought and paid for by the elite in the Petroleum Club and the Banksters and the Gangsters! The rest is trickle down economics and by the time it gets to us working grunts, the only oats left to feed on are what's left in the pasture patties.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Charlie, of your 43 seats outside the big two I don't see the WR taking more than they had the last time. Can't see them swinging to the NDP either, I think like last time voters will stick with the devil they know.

                        Saw some interesting projections on www.threehundredeight.com for all the individual seats where they claim seats like Red Deer North and South both going to NDP as well seats like Peace River and Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater going to the NDP. I'd be surprised but I guess anything is possible.
                        Their prediction for my constituency was wide of the mark as they never even showed the Independent candidate who is the sitting MLA.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Logged on AV tonite! Am weeks behind on all your posts, but can't resist asking all you Alberta farm boys how the rural areas are voting? Local vibes are.... ? Won't miss this one on TV tomorrow night!

                          You're Mr. Numbers, yes you are, Mr CharlieP, true, but what does Mr. Gut Feeling tell you? Pars

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Well rocky, it's this way: oil is good to, and has been good for, Alberta. I drove through a lot of AB last fall. Super roads. Industry. Thriving towns. Everyone head-down-ass-up-working. New vehicles. ATV's. Super little grocery stores. Busy. Saskatchewanians still drive to AB to buy vehicles b/c of cheaper taxes. Good work ethics. Good people.

                            Yup. Alberta has one hell of a good thing going for it. Hope you don't soil your bed just because you have a mad-on. Pars

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Rock - the NDP is bought and paid for by unions , so what the better of two evils ??? Unions can crush a gov't just as fast if not worse than elite . Your not wrong but call a spade a spade - the unions almost killed GM and Air Farce - canada in 2008

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