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The Middle East's driest winter in several decades could
pose a threat to global food prices, with local crops
depleted and farmers' livelihoods blighted, UN experts
and climatologists say.
March 10, 2014 Monday
Middle East drought a threat to global food prices
Varying degrees of drought are hitting almost two
thirds of the limited arable land across Syria, Lebanon,
Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Iraq.
“Going back to the last 100 years, I don't think you can
get a five-year span that's been as dry,” said
Mohammad Raafi Hossain, a UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) environmental economist.
The dry season has already hurt prospects for the
cereal harvest in areas of Syria and to a lesser extent
Iraq. Several of the countries under pressure are
already significant buyers of grain from international
markets. “When governments that are responsible for
importing basic foodstuffs have shortages in
production, they will go to outside markets, where the
extra demand will no doubt push global food prices
higher,” said Nakd Khamis, seed expert and consultant
to the FAO.
The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the region
has not had such low rainfall since at least 1970. This
was part of the initial findings of a joint technical study
on Drought Risk Management undertaken by several
UN agencies, including the FAO, UNDP and UNESCO,
that would be formally published later this month,
Hossain said.
Water and agriculture authorities, alongside specialist
UN agencies, have begun preparing plans to officially
declare a state of drought that spreads beyond the
Eastern Middle East to Morocco and as far south as
Yemen, climatologists and officials say.
Drought is becoming more severe in parts of the
Eastern Mediterranean and Iraq, while Syria, having
seen several droughts in recent decades, is again being
hit hard, said Mohamad Khawlie, a natural resources
expert with Planinc, an international consultancy
focused on geospatial studies in the Middle East and
Africa (MENA) region.
In Jordan, among the 10 countries facing the worst
water shortages globally, Hazem al-Nasser, minister of
water and irrigation, told Reuters precipitation levels
were the lowest since records began 60 years ago.
Even after an exceptionally heavy snow storm that hit
the region in mid-December, the kingdom's dams are
still only 42 percent full, down from 80 percent last
year, officials say.
In Lebanon, where climate change has stripped its
mountain slopes of the snow needed to recharge
groundwater basins, rain is “way below the average”,
said Beirut-based ecosystem and livelihoods consultant
Fady Asmar, who works with UN agencies.
He said the stress on water resources from prodigal
usage was exacerbated by the presence of nearly a
million registered refugees since the Syrian civil war
began in 2011.
Only Israel will not face acute problems, helped by its
long-term investment in desalination plants and
pioneering water management techniques. In Iraq and
Syria, where most of the country is too arid for
agriculture, civil conflict and lack of water storage
facilities will add to the hardship of rural communities
dependent on crop cultivation and livestock.
UN-based field studies show that over 30 percent of
households in Iraq, Syria and to a lesser extent the
Palestinian territories and Jordan, are connected with
agriculture. “Crop production is going down because
of drought, and so in these agro-pastoral economies
you are looking at many, many lives that are now
affected,” Hossain said. In Iraq, which once boasted the
largest tracts of fertile arable land in the region, it is
only three years since the last major cycle of drought
ended, which covered more than 73 percent of the
country.
Extracts from a soon-to-be released UN-
commissioned study says drought in Iraq will persist,
increasing in severity from 2017 to 2026, increasing
further the dependence on foreign food imports by
one of the top grains importers in the world.
The UN study extracts say Turkey, where much of Iraq
and Syria's water resources originate, has cut the
volume of water flowing into the Euphrates and Tigris
rivers by dam construction to meet their own growing
domestic needs.
A poor rain season in Syria has already hit its 2014
wheat outlook in the main rain-fed areas in the north
eastern parts of the country, which should be ready for
harvest in June and July, Syrian agriculturalists say.
Experts say that even if late heavy rain comes in March,
this will not save the rain-fed cereal harvest, which
farmers are already resigned to relegating to animal
fodder. “When there is delay in rains, then the cereals
will eventually wilt. Annual growth has not been
achieved for the rain to come and continue maturity of
the stalks,” Asmar said.
Crop production in the conflict-torn country that once
boasted bumper wheat seasons is expected to decline
further.
Syria's wheat production is now pinned on the irrigated
sown areas that depend on the Euphrates and
underground water, which before 2011 accounted for
no more than 40 percent of total annual production.
The drought and war could slash Syria's total wheat
output to less than a third of its pre-crisis harvest of
around 3.5 million tons to just over a million tons in
2014. Agricultural experts say the most favorable
estimates for last year's harvest did not exceed 2
million tons.
Drought that peaked in severity during 2008 and 2009
but persisted into 2010 was blamed by some experts
in Syria for the soaring food prices that aggravated
social tensions and in turn triggered the 2011 uprising
against President Bashar al-Assad. “Prior to the
protests, food costs were soaring. In fact, because of
these food costs, the protests were instigated, so this
was brought on by drought and lack of planning,” said
FAO's Hossain.
Economic hardship was aggravated by faltering public
subsidy schemes that once efficiently distributed
subsidized fertilizers and seeds to millions of drought-
hit farmers in both Syria and Iraq, agro-economists
add.
Middle-Eastern experts predict more frequent drought
cycles in coming years, accompanied by delayed winter
rainy seasons that damage fruits by promoting
premature flowering and prevent cereal crops growing
to full maturity. “The climate change cycles are now
shorter, which means ... we will eventually have less
rain and more frequent droughts,” Fady Asmar said.
Copyright © 2010 LexisNexis, a division of Reed
Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.
All Rights Reserved
The Middle East's driest winter in several decades could
pose a threat to global food prices, with local crops
depleted and farmers' livelihoods blighted, UN experts
and climatologists say.
March 10, 2014 Monday
Middle East drought a threat to global food prices
Varying degrees of drought are hitting almost two
thirds of the limited arable land across Syria, Lebanon,
Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Iraq.
“Going back to the last 100 years, I don't think you can
get a five-year span that's been as dry,” said
Mohammad Raafi Hossain, a UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) environmental economist.
The dry season has already hurt prospects for the
cereal harvest in areas of Syria and to a lesser extent
Iraq. Several of the countries under pressure are
already significant buyers of grain from international
markets. “When governments that are responsible for
importing basic foodstuffs have shortages in
production, they will go to outside markets, where the
extra demand will no doubt push global food prices
higher,” said Nakd Khamis, seed expert and consultant
to the FAO.
The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the region
has not had such low rainfall since at least 1970. This
was part of the initial findings of a joint technical study
on Drought Risk Management undertaken by several
UN agencies, including the FAO, UNDP and UNESCO,
that would be formally published later this month,
Hossain said.
Water and agriculture authorities, alongside specialist
UN agencies, have begun preparing plans to officially
declare a state of drought that spreads beyond the
Eastern Middle East to Morocco and as far south as
Yemen, climatologists and officials say.
Drought is becoming more severe in parts of the
Eastern Mediterranean and Iraq, while Syria, having
seen several droughts in recent decades, is again being
hit hard, said Mohamad Khawlie, a natural resources
expert with Planinc, an international consultancy
focused on geospatial studies in the Middle East and
Africa (MENA) region.
In Jordan, among the 10 countries facing the worst
water shortages globally, Hazem al-Nasser, minister of
water and irrigation, told Reuters precipitation levels
were the lowest since records began 60 years ago.
Even after an exceptionally heavy snow storm that hit
the region in mid-December, the kingdom's dams are
still only 42 percent full, down from 80 percent last
year, officials say.
In Lebanon, where climate change has stripped its
mountain slopes of the snow needed to recharge
groundwater basins, rain is “way below the average”,
said Beirut-based ecosystem and livelihoods consultant
Fady Asmar, who works with UN agencies.
He said the stress on water resources from prodigal
usage was exacerbated by the presence of nearly a
million registered refugees since the Syrian civil war
began in 2011.
Only Israel will not face acute problems, helped by its
long-term investment in desalination plants and
pioneering water management techniques. In Iraq and
Syria, where most of the country is too arid for
agriculture, civil conflict and lack of water storage
facilities will add to the hardship of rural communities
dependent on crop cultivation and livestock.
UN-based field studies show that over 30 percent of
households in Iraq, Syria and to a lesser extent the
Palestinian territories and Jordan, are connected with
agriculture. “Crop production is going down because
of drought, and so in these agro-pastoral economies
you are looking at many, many lives that are now
affected,” Hossain said. In Iraq, which once boasted the
largest tracts of fertile arable land in the region, it is
only three years since the last major cycle of drought
ended, which covered more than 73 percent of the
country.
Extracts from a soon-to-be released UN-
commissioned study says drought in Iraq will persist,
increasing in severity from 2017 to 2026, increasing
further the dependence on foreign food imports by
one of the top grains importers in the world.
The UN study extracts say Turkey, where much of Iraq
and Syria's water resources originate, has cut the
volume of water flowing into the Euphrates and Tigris
rivers by dam construction to meet their own growing
domestic needs.
A poor rain season in Syria has already hit its 2014
wheat outlook in the main rain-fed areas in the north
eastern parts of the country, which should be ready for
harvest in June and July, Syrian agriculturalists say.
Experts say that even if late heavy rain comes in March,
this will not save the rain-fed cereal harvest, which
farmers are already resigned to relegating to animal
fodder. “When there is delay in rains, then the cereals
will eventually wilt. Annual growth has not been
achieved for the rain to come and continue maturity of
the stalks,” Asmar said.
Crop production in the conflict-torn country that once
boasted bumper wheat seasons is expected to decline
further.
Syria's wheat production is now pinned on the irrigated
sown areas that depend on the Euphrates and
underground water, which before 2011 accounted for
no more than 40 percent of total annual production.
The drought and war could slash Syria's total wheat
output to less than a third of its pre-crisis harvest of
around 3.5 million tons to just over a million tons in
2014. Agricultural experts say the most favorable
estimates for last year's harvest did not exceed 2
million tons.
Drought that peaked in severity during 2008 and 2009
but persisted into 2010 was blamed by some experts
in Syria for the soaring food prices that aggravated
social tensions and in turn triggered the 2011 uprising
against President Bashar al-Assad. “Prior to the
protests, food costs were soaring. In fact, because of
these food costs, the protests were instigated, so this
was brought on by drought and lack of planning,” said
FAO's Hossain.
Economic hardship was aggravated by faltering public
subsidy schemes that once efficiently distributed
subsidized fertilizers and seeds to millions of drought-
hit farmers in both Syria and Iraq, agro-economists
add.
Middle-Eastern experts predict more frequent drought
cycles in coming years, accompanied by delayed winter
rainy seasons that damage fruits by promoting
premature flowering and prevent cereal crops growing
to full maturity. “The climate change cycles are now
shorter, which means ... we will eventually have less
rain and more frequent droughts,” Fady Asmar said.
Copyright © 2010 LexisNexis, a division of Reed
Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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