where's the arbritrage

[sawfly]

what was everyone saying a couple of years ago.
co.s bidding up each other to get our grain .
the brave new post CWB world.

not that this would not have happened
under the board. but they would have caught the blame.(right Tom)

we have gotten lazy and foolish.
believing their BS

fools to think a private corporate transportation monopoly . cares if we can get to market.

great demand for your transportation product, railroad cuts supply and increases per unit profit.
(smarter than what the farmer would do)

same with the grain co.s.. they are competing for our business .
ya right , look at basis

just like the chem co.s.
we can have 5 manufacturers selling the same chemical , yet we pay the highest price in the world.

farmers are the only true competitors in the bunch.

what is there to stop any/all of them from extracting every last dime from your pocket. nothing

there are only 2 ways to prevent it.
either get in the business yourself.

or get the govt. to legislate a real
competitive market in those sectors.

( what do you think the odds of that are with our bought and paid for politicians )

John Lennon said it best.
"still look like f---ing peasants to me"

[parsley]

Farmers have the numbers to make a real
difference, sawfly. Looking to government, air
corporations, to build out pillars FOR us never
works. We have to build our own pillars, to keep
us standing, no matter which govt is voted in, and
no matter which corporation fails or bullies.

Do you believe Western farmers really can work
together? I do. or I wouldn't waste my one on
AV. Pars

[bgmb]

The arbitrage is happening. There are deals out there to be had on spring wheat. You can load producer cars for 20 cents under Minneapolis local basis is about 1.50 if thats not arbitrage then I don't know what is.

[ado089]

Bgmb, why do we have to settle for US
price less freight? Why dont we just get
the US price? It's more or less the same
distance to port. Someone's getting a
deal but I don't think it's you and I.

[bucket]

Is that MPLS cash price or off march futures?

Big difference in whether its a deal or not?

[ado089]

Sawfly, bringing up the CWB is probably
one of the most unconstructive things we
can do in this situation. It's gone time
to move on. A constructive conversation
may revolve around farmers coming
together to buy a large portion, if not
all of the new CWB. Pooling the purchase
price was kind of silly but having grain
coop that operates in the interest of
farmers and returns profits to farmers
as a dividend makes tons of sense.
That's part of the US model we don't
have here to wield as an equalizer.

[bucket]

Basis in North dakota is only minus 25 cents off march futures.

Here is my take on all of this.

Grain companies built high throughput elevators to move grain for farmers at a reasonable cost and some profit.

It was always said that grain companies make their money through elevation and rarely speculate on the market. You sign a contract, they hedge it, and charge you to put it in a car. ALL paid for by farmer's money.

Railways were the most efficient way of moving grain to the coast. They got their way to lessen the number of pickup points by promoting 112 car unit trains.

Now I am being told to either haul my grain past 12 canadian high throughput elevators and 2 canadian railways to get a better price in the states that has got the grain no closer to the coast.

Its the same ****ing distance from mid point North Dakota to the coast as mid point saskatchewan to the coast!! Look it up.

OR I can do the work myself and wear out an auger, and **** around at a siding loading a couple producer cars less than 15 miles away from an elevator that all i had to do was open the slides. And it took as much time to spot those 2 cars as 112 three miles down the road.

I am not shitting on anyone's ideas here but realize this - THE CNADIAN GRAIN HANDLING SYSTEM IS BROKEN.

And its broke bad. Finding other solutions is great, it lets both the grain handlers and the railways off the hook because farmers solved their problems with their own money.

I remember all the conservatives talking about how the price will be the same on both sides of the border, when the cwb was gone (i supported that - my hand is up). Ask the people that said that to explain why it isn't. David Anderson can't answer that question as to what happened, and doesn't want to look at the 5 W's as to what went wrong. I think he knows but his masters won't let him do anything about it. Same with the rest of the conservatives, they can't be bothered to return calls now, or explain the problems. Well, they don't understand the problems.

If it makes sense to load producer cars 15 miles from a high throughput elevator, or truck grain to the states. then it really is a bizzarro world I live in.

[Hamloc]

Agree with you 100% bucket! The question to ask
is why does the american rail system out perform
the canadian system. Is there more competition?
In canada our ability to produce grain has moved
forwards our ability to deliver it has gone
backwards!!

[wd9]

Excellent summary bucket. ****ing
excellent!!!!

The only way you can ever change a problem
is to properly identify it.

[parsley]

"12 Nov 2013
U.S.-based major railroads’ profit growth surged
back in the third quarter, as resilient pricing and
increased operational efficiencies overcame a 2.8
percent drop in total volume hauled compared to
the same period last year."

[bucket]

I also find it odd that people tell me that I should have priced earlier, made delivery plans etc.

Not one marketing rep said they were going to have a minus 3 dollar basis and not be moving grain come December 2013.

In November 2012, those same marketing reps would assuring me that I was the first guy signing flax contracts and movement wouldn't be an issue. Foresight and truth are not one of these guy's strong points.

Its funny but how would have that worked out if all us dummies would have priced when all the smarties did?

No one looks at the cause and effect.

Every one books early, we would have hit this roadblock earlier in the crop year but still been at the same point today because the government hasn't identified the problem and refuse to do anything.

It is a one way path to the west coast. Its pretty simple.

Luckily, Brad Wall got involved but that wasn't because of farmer pressure, if you have been listening to the radio, most here would have figured out that potash isn't moving either, and that is a giant problem for him. They have to go into the rainy day fund as announced yesterday. Bad news is always reported on a friday.

Why does a provincial premier have to get involved in a federal issue?

Wall really is making some federal officials look bad, hey Ritz, Raitt!?

And now the big analysis, where are all these so called farm groups that represent my interests through check offs??????

That's right, as both the Flax council and the SWDC told me , in not in their area of responsiblity. Better be soon, because their funding is going to dry up right quick with no deliveries, and farmers satrt asking for that check off money back.

Why wouldn't they want to get involved, all the research they promote is for nothing if the grain can't move.

Its pretty simple where the problem is.

The solutions require a navigator with a strong will to do what is right for the country. period.

[bucket]

Read this from the macpherson sentinel.
____________________________
Ag Minute: The World's Most Reliable Wheat
McPhersonSentinel - McPherson, KS
Writer
Posted Feb. 15, 2014 @ 9:00 am
Posted Feb. 15, 2014 @ 9:00 am


» Social NewsPosted Feb. 15, 2014 @ 9:00 am


U.S. wheat is the world's most reliable choice. This is the message U.S. Wheat Associates takes to our foreign markets through its 17 offices all over the world.

Shannon Schlecht, vice president of policy, spoke to the Kansas Wheat boards and at the Kansas Commodity Classic. He told growers that Kansas is very important to overseas buyers.

"Kansas is the biggest hard red winter producing state so customers do want to know what's happening in Kansas so they're always interested to stop and see what's going on here in Kansas.
And the impact that it might have on their purchasing decisions or on the wheat market in general."

U.S. Wheat Associates focuses on value, rather than price. Although buyers might be able to source cheaper wheat from elsewhere, U.S. wheat can provide our customers with a better quality product.

"One of the main focuses of our work is really to look at value. We do a lot of work, especially in Latin America, as to how can hard red winter perform better and be a greater value to our customers than Canadian or Argentinean wheat."

Schlecht also discussed the impact of the passage of The Agriculture Act of 2014 on the work of U.S. Wheat Associates.

"With the farm bill being passed, in the trade title, there is funding for the market access program and the foreign market development programs. These are cooperator programs that U.S. Wheat Associates uses to do our overseas market development work in addition to the checkoff funds from the 19 state wheat commission members."

He said the work that U.S. Wheat does on behalf of producers is essential.

"We have competition around the world. Wheat is grown in many different countries. Buyers have opportunities to go and source their wheat from different regions. Having lived overseas, I can tell you that it is critical for us to maintain those relationships and to go visit our customers on their home turf and to build that relationship and to have a name and a face for the U.S. wheat producer around the world so that our customers know who they can reach out to if they have a question, if they need education, or need some help as to how to purchase U.S. wheat. They know exactly who to turn to, and we can assist and make sure that we keep us wheat in front of them as the most reliable choice and the best value for the products they need to produce."

Kansas wheat producers, through their two-penny per bushel checkoff, are able to maintain these relationships all over the world.


Read more: http://www.mcphersonsentinel.com/article/20140215/NEWS/140219543/1001/NEWS#ixzz2tPJKblR6


______________


Two things I take from the article.

1. Every load a Canadian hauls down there makes them look better!!!!

2. Nothing matters if Canada can't get their products to the market!

[fjlip]

Thanks for the summary bucket, agree 100%.
Too bad for farmers the continent was sliced east and west, along time ago.

[grassfarmer]

"Sawfly, bringing up the CWB is probably
one of the most unconstructive things we
can do in this situation. It's gone time
to move on."

Ado, I think you couldn't be more wrong. An
understanding of the lessons of history are crucial.
There has been enough hot air expended on here in
recent weeks to have taken the grains to port in
blimps. Digging canals, building grain pipelines,
opening the Canadian livestock sector to foreign
investment, Nationalizing the railways, hot air
balloons.
Sure the CWB single desk would have struggled to
move a huge crop too but they had a system and part
of that was the influence they had over the railways.
Most of you on here were eager to experience the
"free market" without Government interference and
ridiculed those pointing out the dangers of corporate
control.
The people that knew their history, like the NFU were
asking the right questions then. My friend, the new
president of the NFU, grilled his MP two and a half
years ago during a meeting re the CWB as to what
their plan was to keep the railroads in line once the
single desk was abolished - he had no answer then
and he has no answer now.
He will be reminded of that conversation shortly when
we meet him on the C-18/UPOV '91 legislation issue.
Again the NFU leads the way fighting the important
issues of the day. We need to get this stopped and
time is running out - 3rd reading may pass in a few
weeks.
Our Government direction is being driven by the tens
of thousands of full time corporate lobbyists in
Ottawa and has no interest in how an individual
farmer's living might be affected. Time to change the
system, not just replace Cons with Liberals, but to
change it so that Government is answerable to the
people again. To do that farmers need to form a
broad coalition with other citizen groups across the
country.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket,

This has happened before with the basis and back ups.

If we had a drought... the basis would be fixed.

If we go through a year of high basis... new channels
to the US will open up... and BNSF will haul ever
increasing amounts of CP grain... as will CN.

When it warms up... after breakup... increase in
capacity will occur on our rail system.

Canadian Canola is VERY cheap vs soybeans...

We growers should crush our Canola and burn it in
our equipment... it is so cheap.
$1.25/L X 4.54 is $5.65/gal we are paying for diesel...
x over 2 gal per bu of fuel per bu of Canola. And that
leaves the meal to sell as total profit on top.

Any way we look at it... this basis and low price will not
last. If some one would make a self contained crush
and bio energy generator... Canola has to be worth
over $15/bu right now.

There is the 'Arbritrage'

Innovation always breaks down shortages... for Black
oil (fracking)... and our green oil as well!

Who has to sell next years crop... in Feb before it is
even planted yet???

We are being bamboozled out of $$$billlions if we fall
for these slick sales jobs elevators are spouting!!!

NOW is the time to build bins... and store all the canola
that we could buy at $8/bu!!!!

Cheers!!!