cotton,,,errol,,,others

**cottonpicken** · Dec 11, 2012, 05:25

Read it yesterday at zero hedge,nothing really new to
me.

Did like the end game discussion ,its all i really look
at now.

Read kondratieff years and years ago and never
thought it was needed to help forecast real time
events.

Goldcorp was the very first stock i ever owned...9
years ago.

**boarderbloke** · Dec 11, 2012, 07:32

cottonpicken,so are you agreeable with the "cycles" concept, that it's cycle driven, or is it just where were at, at this moment in time because of mismanagement, and the cycles are a coincidence, irrelevate and unimportant?

**cottonpicken** · Dec 11, 2012, 07:49

Yes and no,history doesn't repeat but it sure does
rhyme.

Maybe it was our destiny to end up here,i don't
know,seems like an offal lot of variables have to line
up just right to make far off long term
predictions,definitely worth thinking about.

**boarderbloke** · Dec 11, 2012, 08:34

I haven't read through the whole thing yet, but when they start comparing cycles over a thousand year period, it seems like a bit of a stretch. Economies are so different than 300 yrs ago, but I know people that believe hard and true that everything operates on cycles, and that cycles don't fail.

The dollar destruction is definitely what they're playing out. IMO, they've been trying to spur inflation since 2008. But what I can't figure out is whether there are actually two competing positions, inflation vs. deflation(like in a market place),,,or whether everyone is on the inflation band wagon, it's just that they(Ben & Obama) can't get the fuse lit. If they ever do, it will likely come hard and fast.

**errolanderson** · Dec 11, 2012, 10:42

boarder . . . didn't read this . . . but
as everyone knows, I'm not in the inflate
your way out of a problem camp. Deflation
remains a big risk in my mind from 2013 to
2015.

**ajl** · Dec 11, 2012, 18:37

Errol, I would like you to explain how
deflation could be the reality when the
government prints money like they have
and are determined to do in the future.
One theory that I have heard is that
once consumer price inflation takes hold
then people will have to sell assets to
buy basic necessities. If there are
other ways please explain. I fear that
all the money printing will result in
Zimbabwe style inflationary depression.

**ColevilleH2S** · Dec 11, 2012, 19:53

Just some random typing-out-loud;

Can there be any price inflation if consumer spending in the big economies is flat. The fed might be "printing" like mad but is any of it tricking down to consumers? The big dark pit called the banking sector is eating up every red cent in an attempt to recapitalize.

And what about the $ and € going to China and staying there?

Demand increasing money supply, drives inflation. If there is no demand, half of the equation is not satisfied. Therefore no inflation.

In fact I think if the E.U. and the U.S. raise taxation levels to fix their budget problems, won't that further stifle consumer spending, and thus lower the risk of inflation?

The more I ponder this, the more I agree with Errol. Deflation is a risk.

**ColevilleH2S** · Dec 11, 2012, 20:05

I forgot this site won't let you use the plus symbol. The 4th thought should read,

"Demand *PLUS* an increasing money supply, drives inflation. If there is no demand, half of the equation is not satisfied. Therefore no inflation."
------------------
But anyways, has anyone else seen the 31¢/bushel wheat cheques from 1932 or '33? It was only a few years prior to that, our grandfathers were receiving several dollars a bushel for wheat. Now that's what I call deflation!

**rhoff** · Dec 11, 2012, 22:30

I think it would be a mistake to compare the next
couple of years to the deflation of the '30s. In the
30's the fed refused to increase the money supply
while fear was fueling a run on banks. Now we
have a chairman who will print 24-7 to avoid
that.the only reason we don't have inflation is
because the consumer is still deleveraging and all
the banks are simply returning the newly printed
mint on deposit back at the reserve. But now that
housing is starting to turn and the consumer is
gaining a little confidence give it a couple of years
and confidence will start to translate into that
liquidity entering the economy. Then you will see
inflation not deflation. I'm not sure why anyone
would expect governments to deleverage the
honest way(austerity plus economic growth over
time). It will be defaults and money printing
because politicians can't fix it and don't want to if
they could.

cotton,,,errol,,,others