Where Would Canola Prices Be If ..............

[bigzee]

All of a sudden the states have a bigger crop of soybeans even though its there worst drought in decades. Could you imagine where prices would be if their crop was huge? At the end of the day looks like our small canola crop isnt going to bring big prices, unless SA has a wreck. Not a good situation.

[burnt]

It would appear that the smallest crop numbers are behind us and it's a real concern that the carryout will get bigger due to finding more bushels and rapidly shrinking demand.

How much do we expect for our grains and oilseeds? It's not like we haven't had some good opportunities, and are still looking at decent returns.

Remember, they feed the bulls and they feed the bears, but they always slaughter the hogs . . .

[farmaholic]

Imagine also adding a decent Canadian canola crop to the supply. I don't know many people who are bragging about their yields. There were some average crops but mine was crap. Had 540 acres of canola and 320 of flax, I have more bushels of flax than canola.

[bigzee]

I didn't want to add a decent canola crop into the equation. Wonder if SF3 has any brilliant ideas.

[sumdumguy]

What are the "lock the bin" guys saying now?
Remember, you can't smell every dart.

[wd9]

Good temporary strategy to ease prices.

[fjlip]

Something stinks like hell, either exaggerated drought or inflated soy yields.

[perfecho]

Again...traders make $ if prices go up or down....the trick is to keep them moving!

[mbratrud]

Burnt, Rapidly sinking demand really? This is where you put another 20 in the machine or cashout!

[mbratrud]

This is hardly a catastophy.... We have a trading range in Canola from $575 - $625 I find it dificult to see the negative in that. Up until 5 years ago $400 was the moon, so get it all in perspective guys!

[burnt]

mbratrud - my thoughts exactly. I missed the peak in soys by a buck and a bit , but with record yields in a very dry year, I am ecstatic!

After watching our corn crops curl up for quite a few days in the summer, the first yield reports are a very pleasant surprise. Yield monitors are ranging, like one guy said "from 40 to 240" in the same field.

I am still not optimistic about our own crop, but it goes to show once again that heat makes grain more than rain does. Having said that, we did go into the growing season with a full moisture profile in the soil. But rain was almost non-existent this past summer, hurting the hay crops badly.

If that same trend of "better than expected" holds true over more of N.A., then we have seen the best opportunities behind us.

[SASKFARMER3]

10 to 12. If we had a big crop.

[charliep]

Canola prices have held up extremely well relative to
the soybean complex.

ICE Canada canola futures - Off $45/tonne from the
highs. Bounced $20/tonne off lows.

Soybeans - Off $3/bu from the highs. Sitting on
lows.

Soybean meal - Off $70/ton from the highs. Sitting
on lows.

Soybean oil - Off 8 cents/lb from the highs. Sitting
on lows.

[charliep]

Just curious, as an industry (not individuals) would we have been better off producing a 16 MMT canola that was sold at an average price of $11/bu or producing a 13 million tonne that will likely be sold for something around $14/bu? As individuals, would you have been better off if Mother nature had cooperated/yields were those in your budgets but prices were 20 % lower?

Realize nobody controls nature but a different of looking at this question. I asked something like this in the past and was reminded the answer depended on your production. Those with production disasters need the price. Those with good yields will be quite happy this year. Prices are still historically high and there are still 9 months of market action ahead of us (things ain't over yet although the past couple of weeks are reminders that market realities can set in).

[GreenValley]

What price would be in Spring or early
summer? As weather journal claim, there
is 3rd straight row possible in return
of La Nina, so possible other year
drought in States as they are seeing
small light of tunnel return of La Nina.
I am holding for Spring till they hit
panic button if it is last year is
repeat in next year crop.