big drop

[bucket]

poorboy

You are right about the similarities but the last time I checked not many people eat fertilizer. But they do eat grain. If the fertilizer price stays high farmers buy less and in turn they produce less and in turn people have less to eat. So they either pay more for grain or they starve. I prefer to let the fert dealer starve rather than give him my hard earned money or grain - I can still eat.

Although to add balance and maybe cotton can confirm this strategy. Buy agrium or potash shares and use the gain to offset higher fertlizer prices if prices go back up. I think those share prices may look like a bargain right now.

[SASKFARMER3]

Vwalk or what ever Yes I did call the bumper a big joke and with the short crop in Peace country and poor one south of Number one. It looked like it to me. We still have close to 2000 acres out, a friend has 6400 acres another 4000 and another 2000 of canola if this weeks forecast come trough we wont get it. Most is canola so number wont be where their saying. Wait the USA is so full of Crap with their soy yield and corn, Australia has frost problems with their crop and Brazil and Argentina are dry watch out in Feb and march again. Fert was way to high all along their was no reason in the world that prices should have been where they were. Yet the sheep kept buying from the wolves. So all I was saying is wait the price is to high. Last year I bought all in March when local dealer was worried, really worried. Paid same price as Early December. Its a game.
The global economic slowdown continues to cheapen fertilizer prices as the growing season ends in the northern hemisphere. After falling $80 a ton last week, bids for urea are down another $70 this week in New Orleans, with buyers now seeking barges at $380. With bids for December out of the Black Sea even lower, prices could be headed down again next week unless the economic outlook stabilizes quickly.
Lack of credit for shippers and distributors caused by the financial crisis is one reason for the slowdown. Farmers also are hesitant to book supplies with crop prices in virtual free fall.
Little business in anhydrous is being done at the Gulf, where official prices are still at the $845 a ton level from August. International spot prices continue to soften slowly, but forward bids are down dramatically, about 40% off where the market last traded. That suggests prices at the farm gate could drop to around $700 to $800 a done in December/January, if supplies are able to get product.
Already, some dealers reportedly are indicating they’re being contacted by industrial suppliers with ammonia to sell because U.S. businesses are cutting back production. Trouble is, many coops and local dealers already locked in supplies at much higher prices, inventory they may either force on farmers or have to write down.
Also VWALK not all farmers had a bumper this year remember some had bellow and some average and some had hail, So why brag. It was a good crop that's enough said.

[Hopperbin]

Bucket you mention. The reason its not dropping yet in saskatchewan is that some fertilizer dealers are going to bankrupt because they bought high priced fertilizer. too bad so sad.
Many farmers pre paid high prices for fertilizer. But for a dealer to go out a purchase high without a sure sale then maybe they deserve to go bankrupt. Don't get me wrong I hope all suppliers are around next year. In my area we still have competition among suppliers. It would also not be in the fertilizer manufacturers best interest to bankrupt our suppliers. Lets hang tuff, our prices will come down.

[cottonpicken]

Another fert info source

http://www.fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-101708.pdf

I like the "plunging" part

[wade]

Thanks for the link cotton

[mcfarms]

I'd seen that the website it comes from is.
http://www.fertilizerworks.com/

Useful site






Here's a great quote from one of the retailers on this website

As for the mood of the Ag retailer…it is degrading as we get keel-hauled by our customers for cost increases promulgated by our suppliers who are clearly capitalizing on the situation. We all hear about how the global market situation is entirely responsible for this, much as we hear how the global situation is responsible for the price of gasoline and diesel. Our suppliers apparently think we are too naive to look at their quarterly earnings reports. Yes, we realize we are in a global market situation and yes, we realize that our suppliers are capitalizing on the situation while we are getting our butts chewed off by the people who have to actually pay for this stuff. As I told one supplier the other day…it is my fervent hope that the folks managing their company are still in place when the seeds they are now sowing have ripened for harvest. They are systematically destroying demand that has taken years to build all in the name of short term gain. I have never seen such unbridled gluttony (and ignorance) in XX years.”

[cottonpicken]

Great site!

This chart:

http://www.fertilizerworks.com/html/market/BasketPrice.pdf

Is basically saying urea is 386,down from 850sih?

A 54% drop?In a few days?

I dont know a heck of a lot about the industry,is this for real?

If it is ....

Thank ya jesus!