Very Close to it being over!!!

[TOM4CWB]

Tom, you just keep believing the "Hype".

Glad you mentioned the USDA bean numbers.


Where do you just find 2 milllion more acres???

We could see some downward pressure yet in commodities, but this shall pass.

You made a good point Tom about easily being able to cut fertilizer costs by 25%, and still grow an average crop.

You and the rest of the world Tom. Can you imagine next years production if everyone cuts fertilizer by 25%??

The world is going to need to eat.

[wedino]

I think we need to throw inflation into the equation. The US fed just finished printing $1 trillion. Like Cotton said in a previous thread "the new found dollars will bid up the widgets"

[jensend]

dennis gartman on bnn on friday and replayed again today makes common sense. people picking bottoms for the last two months have been slaughtered. markets will bottom and the charts will have actual bottoming action. the fundamentals haven't been relevant for the last year so don't think you've learned anything about supply and demand by market action. if you look back at the last year and a half what has really happened? there was a rush of capital into commodities with analysts belatedly giving reasons for it all to happen (perception of reduced supply) and then guys like jim rodgers (sp?) took their profits and prices fell. in the meantime a pretty good crop has been produced on a global basis so supply is not diminished and probably larger. put what's happened together and in perspective and think about what's reasonable for the next twelve to twenty four months if all else remains constant. then realize there is a great deal of uncertainty in the broader economy. that generally isn't good for prices. i think we all have to play defence for quite a while.

[jensend]

here's a post from ranchers.net about developments with the credit crunch. they quote the financial post. as krugman said last friday (he was announced as having won the nobel prize for economics over the weekend) a market crisis doesn't happen at the end of a recession, it signals the early stages.

While Congress is busy bailing out the Federal Reserve (Goldman Sachs and Jp Morgan own controlling stock of the FR) and the banks someone had better come up with a plan or there will be some real shortages within a few weeks. The USA has been hollowed out so that it relies on imports and if they are unable to get to the grocery store or wherever there will be bare
shelves
...........http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=866522

Grain piles up in ports

Canada next in inability to finance shipments

John Greenwood, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, October 08, 2008


The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.

Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.

"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."

So far the problem is mostly being felt in U. S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada.

"We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse," said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver.

The port troubles occur as financial institutions worldwide experience an unprecedented level of failures; even the strongest global banks are taking shelter in government bailouts. Yesterday, the U. K was expected to invest as much as £45-billion ($87.01-billion) in three of the country's biggest banks, while the U. S. government rushed to put in place its US$700-billion rescue package for beleaguered financial market players. Ottawa has so far resisted pleas for direct financial aid for exporters.

Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship.

The Baltic Dry Goods Index, the main measure of shipping rates, is down 74% from its high back in May when trade with China was still strong.

"The credit crisis has made banks nervous and the last thing on their minds is making fresh loans," Omar Nokta, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose, said in an interview with Reuters.

While shipping has always been a cyclical industry whose fortunes rise and fall with the global economy, analysts said the current crisis over the drying up of credit is something they have never seen before.

Jason Myers, head of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said exporters across Canada are getting caught up in the turmoil as customers delay payments, forcing them to shoulder the cost.

"What some companies are saying is we can't pay you until our customer pays us, so it becomes a question of who bares the financial risk and the cost," Mr. Myers said. "We're hearing about it more and more."

What that means is that manufacturers are getting hit as revenue slows and longtime customers disappear from the order book altogether. As profits decline, investment in product development starts to fall, too, he said.

The Canadian Wheat Board, one of the world's biggest grain marketers, has yet to refuse a customer because of poor credit, according to a spokeswoman. "As of this moment we haven't run into that problem," said Maureen Fitzhenry.

Officials at Viterra, Canada's leading grain handler, were not immediately available for comment.

The meltdown in financial markets has resulted in a dramatic slowdown in maritime trade, with major ports in Canada and the United States preparing for sharply reduced activity after several of the busiest years on record.

Statistics from the Port of Vancouver have yet to officially register a drop but at Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., among the biggest U. S ports, imports have already declined 9% this year.

[cottonpicken]

Lets keep are eye on da ball eh?

The series of unfortunate events that brought us to this point in time did not happen two weeks ago.

It happened many decades ago.

And some people,even back then,could give you a pretty accurate forecast.

What evidence is there today suggesting the paradigm has changed.

A year ago these commoditie prices we have today would seem real high.

Today everybody thinks they are low and the sky is falling.

Some people here need to come to grips with the fact that what they are doing is important.

Think of some of the jobs of our society that produce nothing/do nothing and make fortunes.

The pendulum is swinging back,in our favour.

And,rescent events,where FORESEEN!!!!

I am more bullish than ever and buying with both hands.

I think wedino knows what that is.(We should have another lunch at the royal this winter)

And i hope it goes to zero so i can buy it all.


BUT.......
NotInvestmentAdvice
DoYourOwnDueDiligence
NIA DYODD

[stubblejumper]

Tom i"m amazed that you are still farming if you can produce just as good a crop using 50% of your normal rate of fertilizer and you still use 100%.

[Kodiak]

Dow closed up 1100 points today! Staggering. If there was an index for future taxes, it would be up too. Probably by 1100%.

[Kodiak]

I should clarify. That was the Dow Jones December futures index on the CME......

[TOM4CWB]

Stubblejumper;

The obvious answer... is that the response to fertiliser is not related directly to the amount applied... it is: where, when, and how the nutrient is used... that makes yield & market return for the risk of investment and weather.

Things have changed over the past 10 years... on application rates and responses. Zero Till changes much... as does other application technology avaliable at much lower cost... to get the same yield response!

[jensend]

cotton i don't disagree with your reasoning. as a comment on the globe and mail website today noted, zimbabwe's stock market has these big jumps with every wave of inflation. so far all the money (debt) that has been injected by the govt's has been to reflate the credit markets with limited success. whether they just keep borrowing and printing as time goes on will determine how far the inflation/reflation goes. if they followed jim rogers' prescription of just let it go we would wind up at the same place with less pain. i guess i think the amount of inflation we see will be as much good/bad luck as intelligence/stupidity. as homer simpson says, 'it was stupidity that got us into this and it will be stupidity that gets us out of it.' probably paraphrased there.