Black Monday on its way!

[SASKFARMER3]

Black Monday on its way again, it seems its sure setting it self up for that. Confidence is gone from the market and with Bank failures starting to happen all over the world. The ripple is getting close to a tsunami. When speculators are loosing their house their not going to speculate on Grain, Their worried and its showing up. Fundamentals haven't changed at all.
One thing that farmers should start thinking about is their costs. Fert Seed chemical and farm machinery. All are 50% to high. If every single thing in the world is dropping in price (except gold) then they should to. All The farmers of the world are loosing big money and if the bleeding doesn't stop in grain it will next spring when their is no credit to seed a crop and no one buys any inputs.
Maybe we are on the cusp of 1929? Get ready for one really scary ride. The 24 Hour boom is over look out.
Now yes the USA and Europeon farmer is in better shape than their Canadian counter part because of revenue insurance. Maybe we should be asking our soon to be MPS if they are getting ready for this.

[agstar77]

Ready? Harper denies we have a problem, he has his head up his***!!

[silverback]

And what magical plan do your buddies have for us as?

Carbon taxes? That's smart.

Massive spending programs? Even smarter.

Shut down the oil industries? Brilliant.

[agstar77]

As far as I know Harper is still Prime Minister, so the buck stops there . What's his plan?

[silverback]

You didn't answer my question.

As far as I can see, our system has managed to be weathering the storm pretty good so far. I don't honestly understand how people like you as can be praying for a meltdown so badly just so the socialists can get back into office. Stephen Harper is an economist, and a pretty smart one at that. I will take his leadership in an economic shakedown anyday as compared to the other "leaders".

It is called management and if you can point out with some facts where the conservatives have mis-managed this economy over the past 2 1/2 years please do so now.

Feel free to answer my previous questions also.

[AdamSmith]

Let's compare plans

smilin jack - panic, then cut available fuel to the economic engine (busisness) yet demand that engine to pull a much heavier load. Yeah that's about right.

dion - similar to jack but with a heavier load to pull, and he'll have alot of meetings with a bunch of other people who also have close to zero clue.

duceppe - more money from the ROC for Quebec.

Steve - First and foremost, Don't panic. Don't make hasty decisions based on fear, get a handle on the situation then make adjustments as needed.

Sure steves plan isn't very good copy for political writers and MSM newscasts but it's what is required.

[AdamSmith]

Agstar, Bush had a plan. His plan was to spend over trillion of taxpayers money. Republicans and Democrats alike supported "the plan". How well you think "the plan" is working?

by the way "Plan" is code word for "throwing taxpayers money down a rat hole" "plans" plural, means lots and lots and lots of taxpayers money.

Thank god Harper doesn't have a "plan"

[AdamSmith]

As far as I know Harper is still Prime Minister, so the buck stops there . What's his plan?

In true big government loving socilaist form Agstar demonstrates that he thinks the PM is Santa Claus, the tooth fairy and Aladin's gennie all wrapped up in one.

The problem today is a crash of investor confidence which is rapidly spilling over into a crash of consumer confidence. Money by the gazzilions are moving into safe havens, people are shutting off spending because of uncertainty.

As PM the most irresponsible thing he could do is to add fuel to the fire by sending the signal that the GOC believes Canada is in trouble.


Do you not get it Aggie? In the mid 90's we hit the wall, Chretien to his credit, made some tough decisions at the time to deal with the situation, but I don't ever recall him panicing in public, he might have been pulling his hair out in private but as PM he had a greater responsibility to try and instill confidence.

I know this is an election but is it really worth that much to you to get rid of harper, where you want to see things get much worse than they already are?

It's sickening to see the libs and the dippers being chearleaders for economic collapse.

[craig]

Maybe we should get the CWB to run the country. They are suppose to be recession proof. By extracting premiums for 14.5% HRS wheat from the Sudanese they will be able to keep us a float while the world crumbles around us. Another benefit will be the ability of producers to wait a year and a half after delivery for their money.

[AdamSmith]

Canada PM Harper "optimistic" of Canadian economy

TORONTO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Monday he is "fundamentally optimistic" about the Canadian economy.

The prime minister, in an election stop near Ottawa, said the country is in a "relatively good position" compared to some other countries. (Reporting by Jennifer Kwan; Editing by Frank McGurty)
----------------------------------

Now if the PM took his cue's from aggie and the Libs

The headline would be

Canada PM Harper "pesimistic" of Canadian economy

And money would flee this country like it's fleeing the US and Europe.

[AdamSmith]

‘Out of panic come great long-term opportunities'
Article Comments JOHN PARTRIDGE

Globe and Mail Update

October 6, 2008 at 2:17 PM EDT

Vincent Delisle, equity strategist, Scotia Capital, Montreal


“My read on today is panic, extreme oversold conditions and certainly from a near-term perspective, this has to be viewed as a buying opportunity.”


Andrew Martyn, vice-president and portfolio manager, Davis-Rea Ltd., Toronto


“It's too late to sell for the vast majority of stocks out there. You've got to think like a buyer now and you have to take advantage of people who want to throw up stock on 1,000-point-down days. . .

“The right decision today would be buying call options for six months. If they go back up, you have trapped these values. If they go back down brutally, you can re-establish positions lower.”


Jim Stanford, economist, Canadian Auto Workers union, Toronto

“Canada had its own bubble, the commodities bubble, that inflated right alongside the American subprime bubble. Now our bubble has popped, too – and Canadians will pay for the price for putting so many of our eggs in the commodities basket.

“We learned in the 1930s that government can't just sit on the sidelines when the private-sector economy goes bananas. We need government to wade right in there, get its hands dirty, and do everything it can to support jobs and spending. The question is, after decades of obsession with deficits, will we need another depression before we remember that lesson?”

Al Goldman, chief market strategist and vice-president, AG Edwards, St. Louis


“We do have panic, and out of panic come great long-term opportunities for people who can buy when it looks like it's going down to zero and we can start all over.

“Unfortunately ... it's very, very difficult for most investors to buy when the market is most attractive, and I'm not calling bottom here: I'm just saying I think it's a great time for people to start getting mentally ready to do some long-term buying – kind of ‘Get ready, get set, but don't go yet'.”


Murray Leith, director of investment research, Odlum Brown Ltd., Vancouver


“I don't think we're getting a lot of panic phone calls. We probably will, by the time this thing is all over ... There's definitely going to be a global recession. That's already in the cards. It just depends how deep it is ...

“This isn't the Great Depression part two, or Japan ... The policy mistakes [of those crashes] aren't being made here.”


Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist BMO Capital Markets, Toronto


“Trying to do an economic forecast in this kind of turmoil is a bit like trying to put a value on your house while the kitchen is on fire. You just don't know how long the fire is going to go on for, or how much damage it's going to do.”

Myles Zyblock, chief institutional strategist, RBC Capital Markets, Toronto

“The financial crisis has led to de-leveraging, and that's forcing a lot of investors to sell into beaten-down markets.

“We're waking up to the fact that there are no real easy solutions to this and that $700-billion. . .may not be sufficient.”

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief, Stock Picker's Almanac, New York

“The 2004 low on the Dow was 9,750 and as we get to that level, we are encroaching on a technical breaking point.

“I'm starting to see fear mount further, and I'm not sure it's over yet.

Tobias Levkovich, strategist Citigroup Global Markets, New York


“An equity market bottom appears to be forming. The combination of non-financial cash holdings to equity market cap levels, peak-like volatility, typical market pullbacks around recessions and the sense of resignation within investor sentiment all suggest that stock prices are near a bottom.”


Peter Morici, professor, University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission


“It's official! The [U.S.] bank bailout has not worked. Global stock prices are in a panic rush to the bottom.

“The bank bailout cannot fulfill its primary mission to restore investor confidence, because it does only half the job. [It] will provide banks with much-needed liquidity but it does not address the compensation and management practices on Wall Street that drove irresponsible decisions and gave rise to the crisis. It does not address the void of sound leadership at the top of major financial institutions like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.”

--------------------------------------

The reason I posted this is to take note of the general attitude of the comments.

Almost all say the world is not comming to an end and that things will recover once people start looking at the situation from the vantage point of opportunity

Except of course the guy from the autoworkers union, he wants the government to spend like a drunken sailor propping up jobs. He's already decided were headed into a depression.

But then again if you represent workers from an industry that has spent the last twenty years perfecting the art of building crappy products you might see the world as he does.

[AdamSmith]

Now back to farming and the ag economy,

As I tried to show in my above posts, panic begets more panic which begets bad decisions which begets poor results.

If you haven't sold much grain like me, suck it up and don't cloud your thinking by pining on the things you should have done, concentrate on the things you need to do going forward.

Right now is not the time to make any big decisions, lock the bins and only trickle out the grain as cash is needed, take full advantage of intrest free cash advances, and if you do sell try to buy it back on paper if your set up for that.

SFer is right, keep your powder dry on costs, the fert companies are the last holdouts in contest for most delusional companies. They're stocks have been downgraded for a reason, and don't be the dope buying their crap about better buy now because the price of fert is only going to go up. As I told the kid from Viterra today, I'm not farming for the fert companies, I go organic before I spend 75% of projected gross on basic inputs. (30 2009 projected bu Canola x $8.00 = $240) (100lbs N, 30 lbs P, seed and chem = $175) That leaves $65 for the rest of the variable costs, all fixed costs and living. Duh, that's a recipe for financial ruin.

So keep tellin the fert boys to Go F themselves until fert falls at least by half or your summerfallow needs tilling whichever comes first.

Take a trip or two, enjoy life some more and realize that despite what all the fearmongers say, we will survive this economic turmoil.

[Fransisco]

Now that's some good advice!

[SASKFARMER3]

The more I do the math on this one if they think I am going to spend almost 65% or more of my Next years crop on Fertilizer they are sadly nuts. Come on guys wake up the world is crashing around us yet Fertilizer is the only product not crashing. Is it that farmers are so stupid they know we will buy product to seed a crop that we know we are going to loose money on.
I think farmers are smarter than that time will tell.
Oh buy the way latest weekly price for all fert is down. Sep 04, 08 880 803 519 2268

Sep 11, 08 880 770 510 2268

Sep 18, 08 870 713 531 2268

Sep 25, 08 860 645 538 2268

Oct 01, 08 835 590 505 2138
not much but its starting. Also the fert dealers have high priced invintory that they need a sucker to purchase. watch out for the fert marketing dude.

[agstar77]

Staying on topic, 59 % of Americans think the U.S. economy is in a depression. The kindergarten cop says the Canadian housing market is fine. Well maybe he should go back to where he lived for a few years, and look at the housing bubble in Alta.