Whats everyones take on market direction and why?

[poorboy]

Sitting here in front of the computer wondering if the markets have peaked in mid july and now we are on the downward spiral for the next few years. I have found that in downtrending markets it pays to sell all your grain early in the year.

It seems to me that the fundamentals are not all that important, it is the rush of fund and speculator money that moves the markets (both futures and stocks). When the funds are buying you have a bull run and when they are selling you have a bear.

[parsley]

The bull took a notion again, and turned up in the commodity pasture.

Snorting and impressive. And effective.

How many are still lined up waiting and wanting their turn at lassooing the bull?

How many took up feeding the bull?

How many are fixing the fence he crashed through moving to greener pastures because you refused to open the gate when he was done?

Yah, yah, Agstar always tries to shoot the bull. lol

How many calves will you enter on your financial statement?

The window of opportunity is short.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

The strong are eating the weak.

[just_wondering]

I would remember where prices were this time last year and that we were only just beginning to see these prices
someone better than me will look it up but last year at this time wheat was trading in the top 10% of where it's ever traded before.
We just got used to producing at COP for so long that many of us stopped producing.
I think that while me may not see the highs of last Feb. almost all crops are still in historically high levels.
sell enough to cover your cash flow needs, then a little more then re-evaluate.
People still have to eat! and I believe that for third world governments it's easier to feed people than shoot them so grain will be bought and someone will make money, it might as well be farmers as arms merchants.

[agstar77]

When it comes to( shooting the) bull Parsley, you win the award. From what crop analysts are saying they believe the USDA is totally out to lunch in estimating a trend yield in corn and soybeans. The crop is late and nowhere near a trend yield.

[poorboy]

It appears to me that the high prices of oil (energy) are causing a worldwide slowdown in demand as costs of production and cost of living are going up. Reduced demand is the result of the high prices.

It would seem to me that as prices of other commodities come down, so will grains. I do not see a worldwide shortage of grain on the immediate future. The wheat crops look good and demand is slowing. Corn crops appear to be decent with the good summer, and the cattle can be run on grass longer and reduce the demand for corn if the prices stay high.

It seems to me that there is lots of demand, but there is also lots of production.

For those who have opinions on which way things are going, I am interested in your opinions and WHY you think the way you do. Obviously, everyone has different ideas and if we knew what was going to happen we probably wouldn't be telling the whole world.

I did not predict the spike higher in commodities in the fall of 2007 through the summer of 2008.

[cottonpicken]

Spring wheat was 6.50ish this time last year.


The fundementals have not changed,and you can have high prices with slowing growth.

In the past three years there have been only three oppurtunities to buy oil.
jan 05
jan 07
now

Of course it takes brains,balls and back.
Economic darwanism.
Grains are not a sell at this time.
Grains are a buy.

[poorboy]

Cotton,

It is sure nice to see that you are still optomistic on the grain prices. Your indicators and things you watch, show a positive outlook yet for grains, and I am glad that you have shared that.

Part of me is still optomistic, but part of me looks back in history and sees that after every big spike higher in prices is a big spike lower. A steady increase in prices seems to be more attainable on futures than huge swings.

Pea harvest will be starting for me, in the next few days and I am debating on selling all now, selling 1/2 and keeping 1/2, or just keeping all of the crop. I do not need the cashflow.

My spider sense seems to be tingling more now than it has all winter.

[wedino]

Anyone watching gold of late? All I can say, it sucks to be me. This market has to be a buy, soon.

[Kodiak]

The "outside" market action lately defies my ability to comprehend what is happening. Stocks and bonds going up together today. Silver drops 15% in one day. Gold down 20% in less than month. Is there government intervention going on? Does the US Presidential election mean we'll have rising stock markets until November and depreciating commodities. That's what the the politicians want. Will they get their way? What does all this mean for grain prices? And inputs?

Looking forward to your Wisdom Cotton....