April 2008-09 PRO Released

[charliep]

From the press release:

2008-09 Wheat PRO Drops On Improved Production Prospects
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest monthly Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2008-09 crop year. Milling wheat PROs are $18 to $25 per tonne lower than the March PRO for the new crop year, primarily due to improved international crop prospects. Milling durum values have decreased by $20 per tonne. Projections for feed barley Pool A returns remain unchanged from last month, while designated barley values have been reduced by $6 per tonne.

http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2008_20080424.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2008-09

Given a picture is worth a thousand words, I direct your eyes to the historical pricing graphs for both FPC relative to the PRO and movement in basis levels. Will note the relative strengthening of basis over the past (more in between month basis changes than has been seen in previous years).

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2008-09/0809bpccharts.pdf

[parsley]

I looked at the graphs.

I thought when the CWB said they were working flat out, they meant they were working hard.


BUT they've flatlined .... the entire marketing department died!


Parsley

[Fransisco]

I wonder why they only show the 08 basis charts? Is it maybe because they are the worst basis levels ever offered?

[charliep]

You should also look at the historical 2007/08 DPC graphs. Interesting that the DPC has collapsed down to the FPC levels (realzing there still may be some adjustements to the FPC basis). You may want to look at the SWS DPC chart. Ouch. Someone will have to spend some time explaining things to me given most if not SWS is sold in a north American market.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2007-08/0708dpccharts.pdf

[charliep]

The historical charts are all there for farmers to review. To their credit, the CWB does a good job in providing this decision making information.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

That picture is worth a thousand words!

Now the CWB will claim to be the heroes... as the CWRS basis becomes positive...

It (the CWRS Basis)should never have been negative $30 in the first place!

By putting artificial deadlines... actual delivery of contracted grain should be the valid basis calculation reference by choice (not the end of October)... the CWB has manipulated this system to steal millions of $$$'s from PPO contract holders.

[parsley]

Deceased: CWB Marketing Department
Created: CWB Manipulation Department

May farmers rest their peace.

[Fransisco]

Fair enough Charlie, with a little digging you can find the info.

But its not as user friendly as I would like it. It would be nice to be able to access the raw data in excel format as well as the ready made charts.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Where does the CWB graph Producer Direct Sales info on an ongoing basis?

[charliep]

My understanding is PDS prices are only available on a request basis. They are not published and not graphed.

A similar question could be asked about the domestic human consumption price used to price to domestic millers. This information is public (can find in newspapers) but access to this database is not available easily or the graphic representation of it.

There will be daily variation in the relationship between the daily price contract, the producer direct sale contract and the domestic human consumption but they should be relatively similar.