Why don't more people use the CWB early pricing option?

**charliep** · Feb 20, 2004, 15:37

Need to fix my statement. Should be operating or trade debt over 5 % (annual).

**rain** · Feb 20, 2004, 15:52

Charlie is the area a lot of people did. I would say 75% took EPO on Wheat and feed barley. Like you I can not see why anyone would not.

**TOM4CWB** · Feb 20, 2004, 18:51

Charlie;

We could be approaching 2mmt on the EPO side, which is much increased from last year, when premiums were 10 times higher.

If cash flow is not a issue... then even $2.00/t for something that is really yours anyway... is alot to pay.

Virtually everyone knows this year that PRO's are on the low side after last year... plus CWB elections are commimg... so the PRO's will rise to make the CWB look better!

WHy not wait till the end of March... and get an even better EPO... I did mine at the end of Jan (21st) before the last extension to March 31st... was a big mistake! WHAT A RIP OFF!

**poorboy** · Feb 20, 2004, 20:53

Like Tom said, the CWB is lowballing the pro's, so there is not much incentive to take the EPO as it looks like there is no downside to the pool. I was hoping that as they start making some committed sales on the contracted tonnage that they would be raising the pros and then I will take an epo. If like last year and they had sold a lot of the crop before seeding, then the pool should be much higher than it is because the Jan. to June 2003 wheat price was decent compared to now.

**rain** · Feb 20, 2004, 23:11

If the CWB is loosing it ass on freight cost. As some people are inidcating. Why does everyone figure the PRO can only go up. We took the EPO because we think and feel the pooled accounts will go lower due to mismanagement. Also current prices are above the long term average for CWB Wheat.

**charliep** · Feb 21, 2004, 07:47

Would agree with rain. Higher prices/payments are not a guarantee. There is nothing any more comforting to me than having money deposited in the bank/loans paid versus living on promises. This applies to all crops (feed grains and pulses as well) versus just the CWB.

**TOM4CWB** · Feb 21, 2004, 12:49

Charlie;

How soon you forget what a bunch of wild eyed bulls Canadian Farmers are;

We corporately would sell our souls to get a chance on being a part of the "BIG MOVE" up in the markets... which is why we love CWB spin doctors who promise the moon and the stars!

Emotion is what drives CWB marketing and commitments to CWB programs, NOT LOGIC.

THE CWB has been masterful in keeping the whole market/monopoly debate in the emotional realm... fear of multi-nationals, fear of market choice, fear of the nieghbour getting more than me.., fear of change.

Stick with the pool... you will get the most that way...

On the 130,696t in last years EPO on wheat, on average only $15.25/t was gained...

And timing was still everything!

2002-03 Initial/Final on CWRS #1 13.5 $250.20/t

Adjustment payments of $32/t on Sept 17th and Nov 27th of

On Aug 01/02 the EPO nets $203.20/t
On Aug 08/02 the EPO nets $202.70/t
A loss/waste of $2.00-2.50/t, no chance of doing a higher EPO later in fall.

New PRO $242/t
On Aug 09/02 the EPO nets $213.00/t
On Aug 19/02 the EPO nets $215.05/t
On Aug 21/02 the EPO nets $214.55/tA loss/waste of $2.75-4.00/t, no chance of doing a higher EPO later in fall.

On Aug 22/02 the EPO nets $224.60/t
On Sept 03/02 the EPO nets $228.10/t
On Sept 10/02 the EPO nets $230.10/t
On Sept 20/02 the EPO nets $230.60/t
On Sept 25/02 the EPO Nets $230.60/t
A loss/waste of $2.50-8.50/t, no chance of doing a higher EPO later in fall.

New PRO @ $308/t
On Sept 26/02 the EPO nets $263.95/t
On Sept 30/02 the EPO nets $266.70/t

On Oct 01/02 high in FPC CWB $300.94/t
off Dec 02 futures, offering prices over $380/t Portland

On Oct 10/02 the EPO nets $266.20/t
On Oct 21/02 the EPO nets $268.70/t
On Oct 23/02 the EPO nets $267.70/t

New PRO @ $312/t
On Oct 24/02 the EPO nets $270.05/t
On Oct 31/02 the EPO nets $269.55/t
On Nov 11/02 the EPO nets $265.80/t
On Nov 21/02 the EPO nets $261.05/t
On Nov 27/02 the EPO nets $260.30/t

New PRO @ $296/t
On Nov 28/02 the EPO nets $259.65/t
On Nov 29/02 the EPO nets $259.65/t
Nov. 29 last day of EPO.

**TOM4CWB** · Feb 21, 2004, 12:51

Nov 27th CWB Adjustment payment on 1CWRS 13.5px was $63/t

**crusher** · Feb 21, 2004, 17:04

I EPOed all my board sales based on risk cost. If you include the storage payment, the premiums are not that expensive, and lots can happen between now and December 31st.

Why don't more people use the CWB early pricing option?