What are the thoughts on wheat price outlook for the next 2 -3 years?

[malleefarmer]

Here in aussie land we have to contend with grower held stocks from nov dec 15 harvest being carried over some suggest as much as 40% unsold.

Our traditional markets and near neighbours are getting swamped with blacksea and French wheat.

My saviour is domestic market prices relatively strong, and forward sold about 4 weeks ago there was a spike 276 port basis 248 to 250 on farm.

in process of putting up 2 836 tonne silos to store wheat and a few 90 tonne silos to cater for domestic demand.

another issue here is collapse of milk prices diary farmers doing it tough and are great outlet for feed barley.

gonna be a long two year haul as growers swing away from cereals before market reacts.

every man and his dog growing lentils here at 1000 per tonne only need low yield to make a small profit and chickpeas to a lesser degree.

as sask farmer 3 says often the reset button needs to be activated

[Rareearth]

Sorry mallee we will be first to the market, with a bit of everything good bad and ugly grades.

We harvest August sept, delivery to the market in October ahead of your harvest in November/December. Canada with its large crop will flood the market with most of our crop before you harvest or know your quantity our quality. Then you will have to contend with large crop to be grown in India ( if Indian govt gets their way, feb harvest, they arrive last to the dance). The Indian government is on a mission to destroy market place, and further depress local market to the point where no lentils will ever be grown by Indian farmers again, they also run the risk of loosing Canada and Aus. If there are trade disruptions. Governments at there best.

[stonepicker]

Yep it's nice to have the freedom to haul your own wht. wherever you want without fear of getting arrested.

[wakopa]

Let me know what u get wise guy for ur wheat , bet I do better hauling 7 miles in Canada 29

[Hopalong]

Seems to be a bit of a split on thinking about ethanol and biodiesel, whether they are good or bad when used as replacement for fossil fuel.
Oil companies lobbied against them, farmers for them and governments tended to support them as replacement for imported oil
Jury is still out on envirionmental and greenhouse gas reduction value.

[wakopa]

Edit - should say what are u getting for wheat price in USA , think I can do less work and good money hauling 7 miles ,

[MBgrower]

Fill the bins and forget about it until the price comes back.

[jake550]

It's going to get better because it can't get much worse.
Also agree with MBgrower.
Lock the bins for wheat under $7.00 it can stay put for as long as it takes.

[farming101]

Monte's question was long term-the next two or three years. Don't think many
want to store a bunch of wheat that long.

Minneapolis could hold its own over that time frame. A big guess would be a range of 4.40-6.00 US.

Lower quality wheats don't look so good. Hopefully Minneapolis wheat will stabilize here
but there is nothing to say it can't lose another 40 or 50 cents. The Canadian dollar will
play a big part in deciding how much canadian wheat is exported, just like this year.

Speculation in corn gave wheat a boost recently and it will likely be some other market which
will spill over into the wheat markets and give it a chance to move higher. And when you're talking
2 or 3 years no one knows what's going to happen.

Chicago wheat is seeing its premium to corn erode. The feed market will have to step up to help draw down wheat stocks.


In the mini run up recently corn peaked later than wheat. Not a great sign for Chicago wheat.


Minneapolis premium to Chicago at a 14 month high in Dec 16 contract