Wheat and Canola.

[farmaholic]

farming101.... Macro Analysis please before the Easter weekend.

What do you think. What's driving it. Resistance. Potential.

[farmaholic]

Is wheat only catching it's breath?

[bucket]

What's left for the graincos to move?

2.1 mmt space floating.

Lentils are swept out from what I am hearing.

Durum is gone.

Peas are gone.

The graincos can't idle til august and those are the only 2 crops to move on any volume.

My 2 cents and worth even less.

[farming101]

Canola basis improved further this morning at some locations. Commercial stocks dropped in last week's CGC report and bean complex has found some support. All supportive. Domestic disappearance is underestimated.
Producer deliveries lower.
Wheat futures slipping could go sideways till middle of April. That will be decision time deadline. Some talk of Canadian dollar slipping which should support basis values. Probably not much gonna happen right away. Nobody panicked after frost on the US winter wheat. Probably the next threat will be heat in areas that missed the snow or rain.
There was some negatives in commodities this week but the grains didn't do to bad overall.

[LEP]

Jeez, Bucket I thought you said nothing was moving.

[bucket]

Canola and wheat production was 25 and 17 mmt respectively.

Peas durum and lentils maybe what 11 mmt in total.

[Braveheart]

Wheat could get interesting. Low acres seeded. Polar vortex blocking high is going to pump cold air into the plains states where wheat is 2 weeks more advanced than normal. Already top yield prospects are gone. The drought monitor in the US shows increasing drought. Who can take the risk being short in this market?

Canola has seen domestic crush at very high levels. Bins are getting empty. Price will have to rise to ration remaining skimpy supplies.

[wakopa]

sooo should I cancel my 8 dollar contract braveheart and wait for better ?

[Braveheart]

Wakopa, I think you did great for first 29% of expected production. Be happy. Or, be in a happy place!

[farming101]

Old crop Canola futures are close to going inverse relative new crop - bullish

CGC week 33 producer canola deliveries bounced up again, stocks up some. Exports
and domestic use at good levels.

Rail in transit up 150,000 tonnes for all grains in week 33