Wheat Market

[malleefarmer]

Is wheat defying gravity compared to beans and corn?

Seems to me there is a mountain of wheat in southern hemisphere northern hemisphere and chance of another huge crop on the cards.

Most commodities crashing but wheat to me is hanging tough any thoughts gurus or otherwise?

We can lock in basically $240 on farm for standard wheat for 16 harvest not particularly interested in that number.

[farming101]

Currency fluctuations may be the biggest influence to the wheat trade.
Which way the AUD is going may be something you need to consider.
Secondly, what is the USD doing. A weaker USD could free up a fair bit
of stocks in the US.

Producer accounts were net long Chicago wheat at the beginning of 2016, a first
since they began reporting COT. What that means I'm not sure. But it could indicate
that farmers are trying to hold grain off the market at these prices. That usually
doesn't last even if prices stay low.

$240 CAD for new crop in Canada is very rare now. That would be for top grade
in a very small area. Most of Western Canada is around $225 new crop.

The Feb stocks report was up largely on forecasts for a reduction in
Chinese domestic use. How much that really will influence the world market is questionable.

Chicago wheat could easily fall another 5 percent.

(Disclaimer: NOT a guru)

[samhill]

Just a WAG but India had a short crop.

[malleefarmer]

one of our main export markets is Indonesia our nearest neighbour we cant get look in black sea and French wheat dominate plus cheaper freight rates.

we have a rare surplus in oz plus a lot of growers stocks unsold and unpriced.

[BTO_farmalll]

Jesus Malleee,

Don't Yous Ever Sleep!!!!!!!!


Wheat Thrashed Somewhere Round da Globe 24/7-365 - No Shortage, EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!

[malleefarmer]

yeah bto thinking your actually right wheat is never short wereas corn and beans can be.

sleep 10 am when I posted 4.40 pm now cooking on the good ole Canadian broil king not a chinese imitation bbq

[errolanderson]

mallee . . . don't know if wheat is defying gravity. Chicago tested fresh contract lows this week.

Wheat should be bottoming, but showing few vital signs even when the U.S. dollar began to break down. Corn may be the leader here. If $3.50 corn can hold, wheat should respect this. But should $3.50 corn break, wheat could tube lower yet.