\"The Biggest Joke\"... Bloomberg... Very Nice Job!

[TOM4CWB]

Have a peak at this Bloomberg news report 'Gloom AND Doom 2016...

What a well done 'common sense' guest! It would be 'funny'... if it wasn't so crazy... that is where we are headed...

Enjoy!

[TOM4CWB]

Mining's $1.4 Trillion Plunge Like Losing Apple, Google, Exxon
Thomas Biesheuvel
tbiesheuvel
Jesse Riseborough
JP_RISEBOROUGH
January 7, 2016 — 5:01 PM MST

Value of stocks in 80-member mining index dropped since 2011
Shares have plunged as investors spooked by China's slowdown

The $1.4 trillion lost in global mining stocks since 2011 exceeds the total market value of Apple Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc.
When you’ve spent a decade building new mines from the Andean mountains to the West African jungle, it’s bad news when a downturn in China, your biggest customer, shows no signs of stopping. Investors have been unforgiving and concerns that it will only get worse pushed the Bloomberg World Mining Index to an 11-year low.

“It’s terrible, there are no two ways about it,” said Paul Gait, a mining analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London. “A lot of people were hoping at the start of 2016 to see at least some stabilization in the commodity performance in these stocks. Essentially people were looking to close the consensus short that has characterized 2015. This has clearly not happened.”
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group were once among the world’s largest companies. Shares of the biggest commodity producers trading in London are now at least twice as volatile as the U.K.’s benchmark stock index.
Raw-material prices slipped to the lowest since 1999 on Thursday, with China’s stock market suffering its worst start to the year in two decades after the central bank cut the yuan’s reference rate by the most since August. A weaker currency encourages exports from the nation and makes it costlier for it to import commodities, hurting those that supply them.
Anglo American Plc, worth almost 50 billion pounds ($73 billion) in 2008, is now valued at 3.1 billion pounds. The 99-year-old company, which is the world’s biggest diamond and platinum producer and owns some of the best copper and coal mines, is now worth less than mid-tier Randgold Resources Ltd. and copper miner Antofagasta Plc.

Global Mining Stocks Lose $1.4 Trillion in Five Years
Apple, the world’s most valuable company, is worth about $549 billion. Alphabet is valued at $510 billion and Exxon $321 billion.
The Bloomberg mining index of 80 stocks slumped as much as 4.1 percent on Thursday to the lowest since 2004. Anglo closed down 11 percent in London to the lowest since it started trading in 1999. BHP tumbled 5 percent and Rio retreated 3.4 percent. Glencore Plc settled down 8.3 percent.
China’s economy is set to expand 6.5 percent this year, the slowest pace in more than two decades, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. They expect growth to weaken through 2017."

Some more realistic economists... already claim China is actually economically growing 1.5 percent... not the 6.5 percent claimed by the Chinese Gov.

[furrowtickler]

What did people think was going to happen !??
China was building massive fake cities for years , this slow down was inevitable .
The next pop will be the Canadian housing - it is happening right now. Vacancy rates in Stoon and many Alberta communities are shooting up. Lloydminster has close to 400 new houses for sale....
The spending spree is over for now . Walmartions can not support China.

[cottonpicken]

Global depression expanding credit market=

[farmaholic]

A Landman for the new pipeline was here yesterday, based out of Estevan, Sk., the Oil economy came up in conversation. He said there has already been a couple of rounds of layoffs, maybe a third coming. A local hotel, rumored to be closing... large vacancy rate in them, new ones recently built. Restaurants slow and a couple said to have closed... . The oil and gas industry has to be the most wasteful when things are really rocking and rolling, everyone spends like drunken sailors then when the seas calm and there is no wind to sail the ship...BOOM. Reality check time and not just for the oil and gas industry. Keep your powder dry!

[ajl]

What will be the impact on Ag commodity purchases by China? The price declines probably reduce the severity of volume declines but I have not seen data comparing shipments there compared to last year or a couple of years ago.

[TOM4CWB]

ajl

TThe Chinese say they will eat....

$T's in reserves... transition to 'consumer' economy underway...

Bumps are expected...

China's Policies Top the List of DDG Concerns for 2016

Cheryl Anderson DTN Staff Reporter

Thu Jan 7, 2016 06:10 AM CST
OMAHA (DTN) -- The issue of most concern to the distillers grains industry at present is the recent announcement by China that its Ministry of Commerce accepted a petition against the U.S. for DDG dumping, according to Kurt Rosentrater, executive director and chief executive officer of the Distillers Grains Technology Council.


A vital issue for the DDG industry in 2016 will be for ethanol companies to comply with new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act, which will apply to any domestic or foreign facility which manufactures, processes, packs or stores human food, animal feed or pet food. (DTN photo by Elaine Shein)
"Whether China imports a lot or they import a little, I think China's going to have an influence again this year," Rosentrater said.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce notified the U.S. Embassy in Beijing in late December that it will investigate a petition against the U.S. for DDG dumping, according to Tom Sleight, president and chief executive officer of the U.S. Grains Council. He added it is important that the industry understands that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has only accepted a petition for an anti-dumping case.

"We're kind of standing by to see if a case is actually initiated. That has not happened yet, and we certainly hope it doesn't," he said, adding, "but it probably will."

China, the largest buyer of U.S. dried distillers grains, has made a habit of making some sort of dramatic announcement regarding DDG trade with the U.S. just before or after Christmas in recent years. This began with its first anti-dumping probe Dec. 28, 2010 when Chinese ethanol producers claimed the U.S. dumped its DDG into Chinese markets cheaper than they could produce it domestically. Then, just before Christmas 2013, China began to reject shipments of U.S. DDGS after shipments were found to contain the Agrisure Viptera (MIR 162) biotech trait produced by Syngenta Ag.

Most of China's moves sent prices of DDG plummeting. After China granted approval of corn and DDG with the MIR 162 trait, trade with China began to resume.

Sleight said that if an anti-dumping case ensues, it will likely not have as much of an impact as last time, as the industry and the council have worked hard to achieve greater market diversification.

"We've been anticipating this. There are alternative markets and we've been working those markets. We're better prepared this time around,' he said.

Rosentrater said, "I think there's a lot of opportunities for importing DDGS into countries other than China. The industry and the U.S. Grains Council have done a great job of promoting our coproducts overseas."

He added that he believes the Middle East may be a potential growth market for U.S. distillers grains.

FOOD SAFETY MODERNIZATION ACT

Another vital issue for the DDG industry in 2016 will be for ethanol companies to comply with new rules under the Food Safety Modernization Act, Rosentrater said.

"The rules are out and companies are hopefully getting their plans together and understanding what is going to be required," he said.

The Food Safety Modernization Act was described by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as "the most sweeping reform of our food safety laws in more than 70 years." With a lengthy list of new rules and regulations, FSMA has many implications for the feed/grain industries and ethanol producers. This will apply to any domestic or foreign facility which manufactures, processes, packs or stores human food, animal feed or pet food.

The final rule was published in the federal register Sept. 17, 2015 and contains Current Good Manufacturing Practices for all eligible facilities, as well as Preventive Controls for both human food and animal feed. Also, the Foreign Supplier Verification Program rule was issued in October 2015 and the Sanitary Transportation of Food and Feed rule will be issued by March 31, 2016.

The final rule is more than 600 pages long and mandates a wide scope of requirements, including those for employee training and education; maintenance, cleanliness and pest control for facilities; storage of raw materials such as fertilizer and pesticides; holding and distribution, etc.

All eligible facilities must also have "Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls," including development and implementation of a written animal feed safety plan. That plan must contain a written hazard identification and analysis for all "known or reasonably foreseeable hazards." The new rule details management activities for hazards requiring a preventive control, such as monitoring, time frames for corrective actions, recall plans, etc.

Compliance date for CGMPs and Preventive Controls for small businesses (fewer than 500 full-time employees) are Sept. 18, 2017 for CGMP and Sept. 17, 2018 for Preventive Controls. The compliance dates for very small businesses (generating less than $250,000 for the previous three years) is Sept. 17, 2018 for CGMPs and Sept. 17, 2019 for Preventive Controls. Compliance dates for all other businesses are Sept. 19, 2016 for CGMPs and Sept. 18, 2017 for Preventive Controls.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has created the Food Safety Preventive Controls Alliance to develop training courses and technical information to help small and medium-sized companies comply with the new preventive controls rules mandated by FSMA.

The FSPCA consists of government officials, academic and industry representatives that will develop standardized hazard analysis and preventive controls training and education modules, as well as assisting FDA in developing industry-specific guidelines.

FDA provides more information on the FSPCA section of its website at http://1.usa.gov/….

The National Grain and Feed Association provides a summary of the final FSMA rule on its website at http://bit.l0y/….

NEW FRACTIONATED DDG PRODUCTS

A continuing trend in 2016 will likely be the new fractionated DDG products/systems, Rosentrater said.

"I think there's a lot of value there in separating or concentrating proteins and fibers, not just oil like we've seen the last couple years," he said. "I think we're really going to see ethanol companies start to take advantage of the true value of these nutrients."

Fractionation began with removal of corn oil from DDG to provide ethanol plants an additional revenue stream. Currently, oil is removed from approximately 95% of all DDG produced in the U.S.

New fractionated co-products, such as high protein DDG and reduced fiber DDG, enable plants to extract more value from the DDG they produce.

For example, high-protein DDG is currently sold at about 130% of the value of corn, while high-protein DDG is sold at about 180% of the value of corn.

Corn oil is used primarily for the biodiesel and poultry feed markets, while high-fiber DDG is sold to high fiber feed markets such as sow, poultry and fish production.

**

Editor's Note:

Each year, DTN presents an outlook series on what is expected for the year ahead in various areas of agriculture. This is the fourth story in a series DTN is running that looks at what farmers can expect as the hot topics for 2016 in areas such as farm finance, land prices, ag and the environment, agricultural policy, crop inputs, livestock, transportation and others. We welcome your feedback on what you think the year will be like at talk@dtn.com.

Cheryl Anderson can be reached at cheryl.anderson@dtn.com.

(ES/SK)

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