Nitrogen Prices

[Oilking]

Any thoughts on where Nh3 and 46-0-0 prices are headed? Thinking of maybe pre buying now but with the markets going down hard today, it gives me a sick feeling.Shouldn't it be following other commodities? Nh3 here 50 cents/lb delivered pay now. What other prices r out there?

[bucket]

Excellent thread.

Fertilizer prices will move up. Here is why.

Excuse 1. Middle east changing attitude between Saudi and Iran.

Excuse 2. Flooding around the Mississippi.

Excuse 3. Natural gas is no longer biggest production cost of 46. Bullshit is.

None of this makes sense because most 46 is produced here.

Phos is brought in but they have 11 months to get it here by rail. But wait until it's a panic.

If you are a retailer and you know your customer base uses "X" amount of phos fertilizer why not spend the time after seeding to fill the right amount of bins with it.

No turns - most farmers are expected to only turn their bins once a year. Now some are on a two year turn with the capacity to hold two years worth of crop.

Why can't retailers?

[bucket]

Oh and I forgot that farmers are suppose to have a years input on site as well.

Not sure why we need retailers.

[ajl]

World N prices are headed lower but western Canadian prices are headed higher soon due to many of the reasons Bucket mentioned. The other issue is the value of $Cdn. I think it will go sightly higher between now and spring if the cold weather stays and the B of C does introduce its QE program before spring. I think we will see Canadian QE as the Canadian economy enters depression it is just a matter of how fast.

[SASKFARMER3]

With liberals in power look do a Canadian dollar at .62