Will low oil have a Christmas then January file for bankruptcy!

[sumdumguy]

Toys are small potatoes. You should look at small town Saskatchewan and the size of the shacks that some friggin banks lent most of the money on. These young guys were counting on their $150/day per diem. Did the banks never experience this oil cycle phenomenon before? Guess if the Feds back the loans, who cares, Joe Saver will pay for it. This is pure BS.

[Richard5]

I guess what I meant by "toys" is the $125,000 wake board boats and the $100,000 super duty trucks pulling them

Now that SGI covers up the "F" on plates, you don't always know which are supposedly "farm" trucks

I agree, some banks allowed people to go down a path they could never afford. The lines of "interest is cheap, why wouldn't you buy"

[WiltonRanch]

Next fall price for canola delivered to the local elevator is $10.63. If the economy is going to weaken and I had balls of steel I'd contract 5bu/acre. See nov closed at 493 so basis is $24. What would an in the market put cost?

[hobbyfrmr]

At least the laid off folks will save some money when they dont have to go hunting.

The wolves will already be at their door.

[farming101]

Nov16 490 puts are 24.60/t plus comission

[WiltonRanch]

What does commission run? I'm just wondering how much the price has to turn down before an option would be worthwhile. Probably it's better to buy a contract but I fear margin calls and the ability to cover. As well, basis risk is hard to manage unless you get a deal but is nov a typically higher basis time usually? If a guy is well heeled I imagine he could carry to July and have more opportunities to get a better basis. However I'm not in the position for that and I hate sitting on canola that long. Generally I like to sell off combine and avoid the risk of spoilage but I would like to take advantage of attractive prices for next fall at this time without the risk.

[farming101]

Hey Wilton, kinda wishing someone else would add.
Nov 16 is a long way off. You are buying a lot of time. There is a premium attached to that. However it is a way to negate risk, which is what you are after. Many strategies involve selling a way out of the money option to lower costs
Talk with your broker regarding comissions. If no broker a warning. The paperwork is a pain for approval.
If you are not against committing your bushels to one grain company, check into their marketing plans. There may be one that you could live with.