DTN Report in part:
"The spoiler-alert in the canola market is that despite estimated demand increasing by 600,000 mt in this report(including an upward revision of 50,000 mt to feed/waste and dockage), there exists a school of thought that 2015 production could be as high as 16 mmt, which would require a 1.7 mmt upward revision to existing production estimates. This column mentioned the possibility last week based on conversations with industry, while AAFC also mentioned the possibility.
The other major shift in demand was seen with a 300,000 mt increase in lentil exports. This would represent a similar volume shipped in 2014/15 and the possibility of record export volumes.
Cumulative data to the end of September reported by Statistics Canada shows a total of nearly 415,000 mt shipped in the first two months of this crop year, 40% higher than the same period last year and 48% above the average pace of the past three years.
This volume is also higher than the steady pace needed to reach the 2.2 mmt target. Ending stocks have been revised lower to 100,000 mt, just 4% of expected use, while Saskatchewan Agriculture has estimated lentil yield slightly higher than current Stats Can projections. This suggests that upward revisions of 2015 production could be expected on Dec. 4, which may add to year-end stocks depending on the pace of exports."
"The spoiler-alert in the canola market is that despite estimated demand increasing by 600,000 mt in this report(including an upward revision of 50,000 mt to feed/waste and dockage), there exists a school of thought that 2015 production could be as high as 16 mmt, which would require a 1.7 mmt upward revision to existing production estimates. This column mentioned the possibility last week based on conversations with industry, while AAFC also mentioned the possibility.
The other major shift in demand was seen with a 300,000 mt increase in lentil exports. This would represent a similar volume shipped in 2014/15 and the possibility of record export volumes.
Cumulative data to the end of September reported by Statistics Canada shows a total of nearly 415,000 mt shipped in the first two months of this crop year, 40% higher than the same period last year and 48% above the average pace of the past three years.
This volume is also higher than the steady pace needed to reach the 2.2 mmt target. Ending stocks have been revised lower to 100,000 mt, just 4% of expected use, while Saskatchewan Agriculture has estimated lentil yield slightly higher than current Stats Can projections. This suggests that upward revisions of 2015 production could be expected on Dec. 4, which may add to year-end stocks depending on the pace of exports."
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