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U.S. Economy Again Slowing?

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  • errolanderson
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2012
    • 3124

    U.S. Economy Again Slowing?

    Recent economic data suggests that the
    American economy is again in a slowdown.

    Housing starts released this morning
    dropped sharply from last month. Permits
    appeared OK.

    Weekly jobless claims again shot back up
    Real U.S. unemployment above 15% when
    including those giving up looking for
    work.

    Rallying U.S. dollar and failing
    precious metals again an indicator of
    disinflation or more truthfully
    deflation. Gold to $1,150 per oz?

    Interest rates may drop further.

    Retail spending remain in-serious
    decline. More box stores in trouble?

    U.S. manufacturing is again slowing. A
    sympton of a rallying American dollar?

    U.S. crude oil inventories have now
    surged to record highs.

    Personally expect rocky 2nd quarter data
    out of the states over the next few
    weeks.

    U.S. stock market record highs on the
    short-tails of fed stimulus. Dangerous
    bubble or real?

    Market volatility may pick up soon (IMO)
  • jensend
    Senior Member
    • Jul 2002
    • 1531

    #2
    following month to month data is dangerous. i look at a little longer term picture and wonder where people see long term growth in the economy. the housing crash is over but only localized pockets of recovery where the crash was maybe overdone. the americans are about as cooked as the europeans and the germans have hobbled growth (including their own) for a fair long time into the future.

    Comment

    • errolanderson
      Senior Member
      • Jan 2012
      • 3124

      #3
      Jensend . . . personally in awe of U.S.
      equity market record strength.

      Are investors so desperate for returns and
      so blind to risk? U.S. Fed policy has
      built dangerous bubbles in several markets
      . . . including U.S. housing (IMO).

      Comment

      • jensend
        Senior Member
        • Jul 2002
        • 1531

        #4
        i think the equity market bubble is a sign that investors believe the other options have been inflated beyond tolerance and perhaps a strategically good portfolio can make gains. there's obviously been a rush of capital into equities and i think the latecomers will, as usual, get beat up quite badly. the p/e ratios indicate that investors are desperate to park their money somewhere.

        Comment

        • Burbert
          Senior Member
          • Jan 2007
          • 2242

          #5
          Crank up the money/cash printin machines
          agin. Thats worked in the past, lots and
          lots and lotsa times, why not now agin,
          eh. fhrprenriz!

          Comment

          • rkaiser
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2004
            • 2282

            #6
            Or crank some investors in the side of the head and get them off their asses. Lack mentality, fear, and laziness drive the equity markets. Lots of money in the world and as Bubert says, they keep making more. Build something with it for chripes sake. Counting on the stock market to put money into entrepreneurs hands works, but too many middle men taking along the way.

            Making things complex will continue to nothing but hold back a world from thriving.

            Oliver Wendell Holmes said “I wouldn't give a fig for simplicity this side of complexity but I'd give my right arm for simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

            Complexity breeds complacency.

            Comment

            • errolanderson
              Senior Member
              • Jan 2012
              • 3124

              #7
              Canada's inflation rate released this
              morning (Friday) and fell to the slowest
              in more than three (3) years.

              The CPI index rose just 0.4% in April.

              Bank of Canada rate hike talk is getting
              fairly long-in-the-tooth. There is no
              hope-in-hell of any rate hike in the
              foreseeable future.

              QE3 pullback talk is punishing gold and
              the loonie this morning. If uncle Ben
              doesn't show up at the dinner table with
              his chequebook, a lot of commodities
              will begin decline.

              Comment

              • Burbert
                Senior Member
                • Jan 2007
                • 2242

                #8
                Yabutt, they ain't declining now, theys
                rallying taday, butt its Friday and the
                longweekend is upon us, soooos nutting
                will now actually happen till Tuesday, eh.
                Except lotta beer and hotdogs consumed by
                the city cousins on weekend. Comedian
                framers have theys noses ta the grindstone
                and are workin, workin, workin.
                fharperenritz eh!

                Comment

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