Theory

[cottonpicken]

This isnt all mine.

The cyprus situation is pretty crazy no matter how
you look at it,every analyst seems shocked.

All western economies are desperate for growth.

All central banks are openly saying they want to
devalue their currencies.

Money velocity is at its lowest in 50 years.

Cyprus gets thrown under the bus,to scare the hell
out of everyone and increase velocity.

Which = commodity super spike,short term rally in us
bonds and currency,stockmarket spike

I think the next 12 months are going to be interesting
,no matter what.

[farmaholic]

Cotton: Asked without sarcasm and
looking for a real answer, how can it
be expected for economies to grow for
ever at any rate? To me it doesn't seem
realistic, so why do they get unglued
when it stalls or recedes for a while.
I can't get my head around the fact they
are expected to grow forever. If your
farm grew at rates expected for
economies(or greater) how big would it
be in three generations? I need an
economics lesson.....

[freewheat]

Farmaholic, great question.

[cottonpicken]

Its only my opinion.

Your exactly right when you say,expect to grow
forever,nothing can our does,it eventually
collapses,this is true of all systems with any growth
rate,its the exponential function ,which is so very
important to understand,i'll put a link at the end by a
professor who explains it better than me,you and
many already understand the theory,i watch it once in
a while for the hell of it because the guy is a frickin
genius.

It actually can be applied to why some farms are so
big.5% growth over 20 years,isnt as obvious as 5%
growth over 100,the compound effect is staggering.

Back to economies,population growth alone demands
expansion,along with geo-political competivness and
everyday people just wanting more and more.Then
there is fractional reserve banking and debt,that has
to continually increase in order for that system to
work.

I wouldnt pretend to know how it all plays out,but
what cant go on forever..doesnt,and the end of the
geometrical curve happens WAY faster than all the
time it took to get there.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umFnrvcS6AQ

[zeefarmer]

I have been thinking the same thing. Fear is a great
motivator.

[oneoff]

The last "doubling" involves more consumption; greater numbers; more impact (assuming no offsetting changes in business and lifestyles etc.)

THAN ALL THE PREVIOUS YEARS of growth C.O.M.B.I.N.E.D.

[farmaholic]

oneoff: with that fact being made in
the video, it is simply unimaginable
the requirement for the "need and speed
of money" to sustain exponential growth.
Then there is the consumption problem.
I am ASSuming there will have to be
adjustments and corrections coming.

Nothing goes up for ever, I watched
truck prices escalate to $70,000 and
said it wasn't sustainable. Then the
Auto makers had to "program" the shit
out of them to get them down to a price
the public would buy them again. This
all being done while not dropping the
"Suggested Retail Price". I know I am
not the sharpest knife in the drawer but
stuff like that insults what little
intelligence I do have.