March Canola visualized

[ColevilleH2S]

What adjectives would you use to describe the March Canola contract in the last ten days? All I can say is, wow.

<a href="http://beta.photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i335.photobucket.com/albums/m441/npksetal/Bucket/Canolamar_zps3dc09edc.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo Canolamar_zps3dc09edc.jpg"/></a>

[crusher]

Or darn....I sold too soon, good thing there's more in the bin.

[boarderbloke]

Some of that, may have to do with this,

[URL="http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/D6H13"]$CND[/URL]

[checking]

Wow is not an adjective. LOL

However, that is a good looking chart.

[charliep]

Soybean complex is going up as well (actually a rally shared by most commodities). I will note the chart is a 90 minute. Look at the daily and I suspect you will see a pretty firm resistance area. This rally may have broke it but it needs a few days of firm closes above. Would also be watching futures spreads (particularly the March/November) and basis.

Perhaps the most amazing thing to me is the Dow Jones. As negative as everyone is, the index keeps chugging higher. You can thank me because I sold some stocks early in January so that was a very sign things were going higher. The second most amazing market is crude oils. Holding above $95/barrel. This would be another reason the vegatable oil complex/canola is getting dragged higher.

My only comment for the bulls is "You live by the sword, you die by the sword". You don't get to brag until you sold canola/deposited the money.

[ColevilleH2S]

Thanks for checking that Checking.LOL Is Moonshot an adjective, or is it only a noun? I never did pay attention in English class.

And BTW the CND dollar has been trending up since the 24th. So I speculate it has more to do with crushers feeding their plants, and the story below this thread mentioning South American logistics issues.

[SASKFARMER3]

Dry for next while in Argentina. Mata Grasso Getting pounded till 5 th of feb in monsoon rains. Their ready to combine. Trucks and driver safety new rules so you don't have guys driving day and night to get to port, taking drugs to sleep and stay awake, or drinking. Ok as much.
USA still not really wet.

[errolanderson]

March is breaking current chart resistance
in the $620 - $621 range today. Close will
be important today. Risk on fund buying
appears to be key driver.

Guys . . . keep an eye on Nov.

This is a fund rally with a massive South
American crop on the doorstep . . . .

[bucket]

errol

I was just going to ask, if this a blow off should a guy get more sold into new crop?

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . good question.

To me, this is a fund buying inspired
rally. South America is now in full-
blown harvest mode and China will swing
sales to them. Bullish technicals though
suggest this rally is not over. March
soybeans to $15/bu?

Nov canola appears poised to take a stab
at $570/MT and there are some analysts
suggesting $580/MT.

IMO this is an old crop pricing
opportunity. New crop is more difficult
as the market really doesn't know where
our acres will be this spring.

[bucket]

Coleville

Can you update that chart. I am not a chart watcher, I just have had a nagging feeling since harvest that there is not enough canola. It takes time for the info to work through I guess. But I sold at 14 feb delivery, thought it was a nice place to start sales again.

A week ago we were talking about the cwb ads, the CBC just mentioned it yesterday. Things like that make me think farmers have more info, and sooner, and then get nervous and sell because the info that drives the markets hasn't got to the traders or the MSM.

[charliep]

Will comment this is a meal driven rally with soybean oil lethargic and more or less range bound. Canola has its own challenges around tight supplies but needs support from soybean oil. Did the calculation today and 70 % of your value comes from the oil side and 30 % from meal. I suspect the oil is even a greater is I used cash oil/meal versus futures.

[charliep]

Farms.com has good charts. Pick canola. Pick your month. Look at the bottom of the chart. Can do interday trading charts (down to 5 minutes) as well as weekly/monthly. I will note sometimes frustrating as the charts are not always available.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=default"]farms.com[/URL]

[errolanderson]

today's close is hugely important. If this
rally holds until 1 p.m. then more up
ahead. But if canola fails late day, the
price party is suddenly over.

crazy, but true . . . .

[ColevilleH2S]

I just discovered farms.com will let you do comparisons of two commodities on the same chart. Here is the Canadian Dollar (green line), vs the March Canola contract (sticks), over the last 9 days. % values on the y-axis.

<a href="http://beta.photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i335.photobucket.com/albums/m441/npksetal/Bucket/CDNRSH_zps69b23fe8.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo CDNRSH_zps69b23fe8.jpg"/></a>

I see I misspoke in my post above, I should have said the Canadian dollar has been flat since the 24th. I'm think I'm confused as to the difference between the XD and CD, Canadian dollar contracts :-(