Canola stratagey

[bucket]

SF3

I don't want to bring the other marketing option into thread that bad, but you could have sold through the cwb and only got a portion of your money.

I think your sales look pretty good.

[Choice2U]

Bucket. Setting a price for your canola in the bin and pulling the pin when it hits is a good thing but that should be a management decision not a speculative one. How do you speculate with 50% (example)of their canola in the bin. If one speculates with their physical that the US drought gets worse and they get bad weather in Brazil, they are risking their $13.75 if the opposite happens as the price will likely fall and significantly. Ado is only risking $12/Mt to play speculator in the risky weather market. His lottery ticket is $12/Mt. What is the cost of the lottery ticket of the physical product if they are wrong....it could be way more.

[Jagfarms]

Just contracted 50% of our canola at $14 bu so the
price is sure to go up after I signed the contract. We
contracted 20% of the combine only 30% left.

[Daylate]

I know where your going with the $12 canola for
harvest sf3. I feel the same way. It's not competitive
to wheat. It has to be more to buy acres or wheat
has to be less.
I'm 60% sold at 13.55 for the year. I contracted 15%
@$12 last January for past harvest, because it was
the most profitable crop last year at that time, and
made me money in an average year. But this year
the carrot right now has to be bigger for me to bite
for harvest delivery given the current wheat market.

[bucket]

choice2u

I think I agreed with his strategy in a post above. I get it. If it goes down he is covered. If it goes up he participates in a rally.

I just sold some at 14. I think there is some upside, but I am ok with letting it fade to a 13.75 cash price. Not sure it will happen, I try to stay on top of it now. Good basis saying it is time to sell.

If the markets fade $12/mt I can still sell at a decent price.

I would like graincos to take some of SF3s advice and start raising new crop prices, but I am not sure they will do that until the bins are swept out.

[BTO_farmall]

Look At All The Dumb F#ckin Farmers on Here. Waitin it out All Winter To Sell fer $14 per Bu, When Yous Coulda Sold it off The Combine 4More. Ain't Gunna Wait it Out, Ain't Got No Business Holdin Out in The First Place, Drive The Markets Down Some More!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Oliver88]

The March to July inverse is now $20.70/tonne.
Interesting to see what happens in February.

[charliep]

Would also look at basis. Basis seems to be settled in
in the $10 to $20 over area with even higher levels in
unconfirmed cases.

If you like the idea of selling expensive/buying
cheap, the are likely a number of strategies that can
be used - particularly if you want to get canola moved
ahead of road ban/seeding.

[charliep]

I would look more at the March May spread. As Errol
said, July tends to be an in between futures caught in
the old/new crop world. Many companies will tend to
use November/basis to price canola through the late
spring/early summer. Better trading trading
volumes/ability to make better decision about
inventory/sales execution management as they
transition between crop years without worrying about
futures contract spreads.