Canola stratagey

[SASKFARMER3]

Seems when it gets to 14 guys start hauling.
Funny one grain company phoned today and was trying real hard to get us to sell fall delivered canola for 12.35. Hm can you guess what I told him.

[wd9]

And why not SF3? It may go higher, yup.
But shoot 14 bucks, who da thunk 3 years
ago there would be a question to sell or
not at 14?????

[bucket]

thanks for making me feel like a schmuck SF3.

I signed some new crop at 12 bucks quite awhile back, mostly because if its a little tough I can dump it off the combine, and let them deal with it. Its easier to take a small load sampling than mess around with it in the bin.

[Choice2U]

ado...great strategy for taking advantage of a weather scare. If it occurs, you make money. If the rains come, you made money because the futures will fall and you sold the physical. One has to separate the paper trades from the physical just like the hedge funds. The commercials use the market for their benefit but the real market mover is the hedge funds. They will fire up any weather scare using paper way more than any present supply/demand balances. The likes of Bucket must not be scared of any downside if they are on the wrong side of the market. If the market moves up only $30/mt, you probably won't make much on your calls but if there is a major problem, you will make big time all with downside protection.

[bucket]

choice2u

I figure if guys say they are willing to spend $12/mt for an upside swing, I can set my pricing targets at between 13.75 - 14 bucks and still be ok.

I am sort of waiting for a punch through 610 on the may for more pricing. Some goes out in february because 14 is too hard to pass up. I was happy with it in the fall should be ok for some now.

[highwayman]

Had two grain companies yesterday trying hard to persuade us to sell spot canola at 14 tied to same tonnage of new crop at 12 for sept. Didn't bite and today had two different TPAs trigger at 14plus/bus with line companies for jan/feb delivery without committing any new crop. Just maybe the worm is about to turn on grain prices. Patience grasshopper.

[SASKFARMER3]

Not cutting any one down but why the hell would you guarantee them a supply for fall at 12 a bushel. Really!
They love it when farmers fall all over them selves to sell because they don't want to store it.

[bucket]

SF3

I was laughing at my own stupidity but at the time 12 bucks seemed like a good price. Plus I will take it off at higher moisture and green counts just to get going. Let them worry about it.

Besides didn't you tell us a story about some heated canola awhile back?

I notice TPA are being picked up at 14.

If it punches through that level inside of a week it could be 2008 all over again.

Still, 14 was too good to pass on. The rest can average up a bit.

Its better than the old way and avaeraging down for 18 months.

[SASKFARMER3]

My heated stuff is from 2004 frost year.
Yes getting going sooner is an advantage. But is 12 a decent price given where we have been or are we just feeding them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes the fall sale at $14.50 was a good thing. But the Jan sale at 14 took down the average.
Oh well that's marketing.