cwb final??????

[caseman]

anyone hear when the final payment is coming??

should not have to wait this long

[Oliver88]

I asked the customer rep when I deferred my
interim payment and they figured late February or
early March.

[bucket]

Interesting note here.

The WGRF has their money from the railways on going over the freight rate cap already.

I suspect the cwb has to make sure management gets their bonuses before they actually pay farmers.

As always, all the leeches are paid first. Performance or not.

[bucket]

And then consider the winter wheat crop conditions, it really makes you wonder WTF is going on.

"""Some South Dakota farmers are concerned about the lack of snow cover protection for winter wheat.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture says in its weekly crop weather report that snow cover for winter wheat is rated at 61 percent poor with the remaining 39 percent adequate.

Winter wheat condition is rated at 21 percent very poor, 49 percent poor, 27 percent fair and 3 percent good."""

[errolanderson]

The U.S. has clearly lost their ability
to control global wheat prices. The
Black Sea and Asia is gaining control. A
drought in the U.S. is serious, but it's
not enough to keep these prices from
falling back. Also, market knows spring
rains are what count in the U.S.

Also, U.S. exports have taken a hit. The
market is dropping to levels to attract
fresh demand. Once those levels are
found, grains are likely to rebound. But
there is also a bin-busting South
American crop on the horizon. Brazil is
now in early stages of harvesting its
corn. About 10% of their corn is now
mature.

Supply concerns have to match demand and
if it doesn't, prices will correct to
rebalance this equilibrium. This is what
is happening right now.

Errol

[hobbyfrmr]

Ok, so what to do about new crop? Pricing is 25-
30% less than I had expected. These prices still
show modest profit on my farm, just not as much
profit,which is insulting and discouraging.
I think I will sign up half the grain I normally would
for new crop contracts for cash flow at harvest
time.
The us is still in drought, but my experience is
market rhetoric always wins over the real situation
in the fields. Unstable US economy, higher
Canadian dollar will be another wonderful
excuse to push prices down.
I am going sour on the bear movements so I will
sign up some modest profit before my emotions
take over and lose my ass in spite of world
markets. I recall in 2008/2009 it took 2 years of
much lower prices and sometimes "no bid" before
the market returned to profitable prices.
The only reason I will sell half as much is because
to the large area of the US in drought and some
US farmers are talking about how much snow/rain
it will take just to replenish subsoil moisture.
Maybe, this will eventually show up and improve
the prices later in growing season. I just keep in
my head, "Maybe" does not pay all the expenses
on this farm.

[bucket]

The CWB is running short on cash because of the change in the marketing option. Just look at the 2011 balance sheet of last issued report.

3.6 mill current assets to 3.9 mill current liabilities. Just like every other business and many farm operations, once current inventories and receivables are sold/received, there isn't enough money to pay current debts without borrowing more money.

I think we all know CWB has struggled to get much business this first year and delaying the interim and final pmts supports this.

[errolanderson]

hobbyfrmr . . . USDA is next Friday, Jan
11th. Those fresh global / U.S. carryout
numbers might provide a bullish boost.
Suspect that these markets are now getting
oversold, but traders may be cautious
ahead of report.

[bucket]

ANd like every other ponzi scheme as long as you can continue to steal from someone, it continues.

But the jig is up on the cwb.

[rockpile]

Anyone who hasn't priced or sold their 2012
production will now be selling in the bottom 50%
price range. And options can be a damn good
investment. Expect 2013 prices to be 30% lower. As
one who farmed 35 years before leaping from the
squirrel cage I can tell you this exact scenario plays
out every 10 to 15 years. It takes forever to build up
the price, one sneeze and they collapse. My advice -
don't dwell on trying to nail the highest price of the
year. Set a target you can live with, pull the trigger
if you see it, and don't look back. And run your
operation based on the lowest, not highest
expectation. I had an old neighbour who used to
say 'farm for the bad years, the good ones take care
of themselves'. All the best in 2013 my friends.