Corn Soyabeans

[brian99]

The average corn yield in the U.S. is 150. 150 at $4.50(it's not at $5 yet)is $675/acre. Soybeans at $12 (with potential to go higher AND no big fertilizer bill) looks much better to me. I'd be starting my marketing in beans here if I lived down there.

Using the 70 bushel number for wheat,70 at $11 is $770. Beats corn again. I used $11 because I don't know what new crop wheat is at(CWB, you know). I don't think wheat will stay there, but there should be some good pricing opportunities for those WW boys in the states.

[SASKFARMER3]

Brian whats the Average yield for Wheat in US. Its not 70.
I am talking Kansas Corn VS Wheat.

[TOM4CWB]

Brian99,

If you got 150/ac Corn... in corn country... you would go broke!

US Corn Country Cash rents are like $250/ac... do you think the expected yields are 150bu/ac?

Very good money (Never been better)being made by everyone who had a good marketing plan... this year...!

[TOM4CWB]

Brian99, your absolutely right with your 150bu/acre, or - a bushel or two.

[dalek]

I'm central Ontario, yields here average 125 corn, 65 wheat (SRWW) and 45 soybeans. Average rent's only $40 though. Down into southwestern Ontario there are several counties where anything under 200 bushel corn is a poor crop. Parts of the extreme East along the Quebec border are up there too. There's a HUGE cost difference between winter wheat and corn. Corn here's going to average $60/acre this year for seed alone.

[dalek]

It's a VERY rare US corn grower, even in the corn belt, who can count on 250 bushel corn, and plenty who are paying $250 for 160-180 bushel ground. My math doesn't work quite that way.

[brian99]

Tom, I understand your skepticism, because I've heard lots of anecdotal stories about 250 bu corn and up. 150bu/acre the USDA number, give or take. I know it doesn't make sense, because for every 250 bu crop there has to be a 50 bu one to average 150. Maybe silage acres are included and reduce the yield number. I'll have to do a little digging.

Soft red winter wheat yielded 50-65 over the past four years over about 6 million acres. Kansas City wheat today was about $8.25. I don't know if you could squeak into the earlier months at $9. My math puts srw at 60 bu times 8.25. That gives me $495/acre.

Corn seed here(s. alberta), dalek, is $175 per bag. That includes poncho. That puts my corn seed cost at $77.78/acre for silage. Just for arguments sake, assume Kansas corn seed costs are the same, throw on an extra hundred bucks for fertilizer for corn(and I'm not sure that would do it this year) to get to $673 for corn to be even with $495 wheat. Hmmmm...

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is another thought, Farmers like crops that yield big, Corn is one its fun to harvest the hopper fills fast its exciting, Winter wheat is a filler its a drag it yield low in comparison, most will switch to corn, You have to be American to understand.

[TOM4CWB]

Brian,

I spent some time with a US grower who grossed just under $1000/ac on his corn this year.

While he is obviously not an average grower... it does clearly explain why a 50bu wheat crop doesn't cut into acres in corn country.

60bu beans worked out quite well in 07 ...
The 200lb of N/ac for corn was costing him $520/t in November and he was talking about prebuying @ $650/t for next spring.

[dalek]

Brian99 there doesn't necessarily need to be a 50 bushel crop for every 250 bushel crop, just 10 140 bushel crops for every 250 bushel crop. And there are a lot of corn growers in the US (most of the Eastern seaboard, big areas around the Great Lakes, some of the drier parts of the midwest) where 140 bushels is a good crop.