Predictions

[Vader]

http://www.agpolicy.org/ppap/2007/RayAgriumSept272007.ppt#752,33,Weekly Policy Column

[parsley]

American policy? Hmmm.

Dion and Orchard will want to take their lead from American policy such as this, with the main central theme promoting "Mechanisms to manage productive capacity".

I'd be a little more interested in the the examination of current Canadian policy, Vader, and then, judging upon the effectiveness of it for FARMERS, on what we deposit in the bank, develop Canadian policy, NOT American policy.

Currently, it could be ALMOST argued that we have a mechanism to manage productive capacity, albeit not formally defined as one.

Canada's state selling agency manages production somewhat by buying at low prices from farmers, and dumping that grain at low prices on world markets. A good example is 2007 malting barley .

The CWB pays zippo to farmers for malt barley, hence the barley was sold by farmers, not the CWB state trader, as feed, for a higher price than the CWB was paying for malt.

Hence, who will plant malting barley another year? Is that the kind of "managing" you had in mind? It's the method you promote,isn't it?

Next, you'll be promoting Cuban research policy for Canada, and perhaps selling water buffalo breeding stock for planting crops, with Dion and his "piipol" riding atop, knapsack full of strawberries.

Parsley

[Ron]

Good to have you back as our whipping boy Vader.
This presentation has a good point, we will overproduce. It always happens, new land will be broken up, inputs will rise, farms will get larger, etc etc etc.
The question is when? Untill supply exceeds demand there will be a very profitable period. Any shortage in supply should send prices "to the moon", will the CWB let us maximize our returns ourselves? Because when oversupply lowers prices I dont believe there is a premium for our product to save us.
Do you have any thoughts on the barley situtation for 2008? (are you still in the CWB loop now that you are running for political office? Not bitching just curious for any info regarding the CWB position on new crop barley. I hoped for something to happen months ago (my first choice was a dual market, now it is take barley away from the CWB period).

Merry Christmas and dont take this personal but:

SCREW THE CWB

[bluefargo]

Vader - I too am happy to see you back on this forum.
You can give us some insight that few others can. It seems like when your name shows up people are on you like wolves at a sheep convention and thats too bad.
A little civility would be in order on this site.
Merry Christmas to everyone

[TOM4CWB]

Vader,

I had a big volume of wheat BASIS priced out by the CWB at the end of October.

I did a little at the end of August, left the rest till the CWB ended the game.

At Informa, we were given the charts on past CWB Basis... clearly what happened in the fall of 2007 was out of line with past performance... no logical explantion has been forthcoming to market signals that entitle the CWB to the extra $60/t on the basis on PPO FPC.

The only logical reason the CWB had to take this "protection" is that they are in the same position the Ontario Wheat Board was some years back... when the system in place could not handle the volume demand.

The Risk Management CWB has in place obviously failed... or the Basis would have followed market forces...

ANy other logical explanation on offer Vader?

Prediction... will the CWB be able to fix this problem?

[cropduster]

Tom...would it be out of line to also add"What basis is accrued/charged the pooled grain?" Seems we are never allowed to compare the two accounts ..

[parsley]

bluefargo,

vader should defend his supply-management reference, if he is able.

I have always liked Vader in real life,we go a long way back, I still like Vader, and he will know that, but his being "saved" by the CWB's single-desk possee, and then dangling out a reference like this is bound to trigger a negative reaction, and he should expect no less.

Parsley