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Decision Days on CWB Fixed Price/Basis Contracts
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heard L Weber on the radio yesterday, didn't sound too happy about the wheat market! if i understood him correctly, he feels chart readers are leading the market rather than fundamentals. have a sense he might be long old crop wheat! but maybe we all should be!
If a person is bullish wheat, should they be signing a basis contract today/tommorrow (realizing you may be holding your nose a bit given ugly basis/adjustment factor)? Don't think I would not use December (too short a time but do you sign a basis contract for March (old crop fundamentals) or July (new crop fundamentals/assuming inverse narrows)? Are you better off staying in the pool/using the early payment option as initial payments are increased/early payment option premiums decrease?
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