The Early Bird Got a Rotten Worm

[wilagro]

Forward pricing is GAMBLING and you are gambling against knowledgeable companies who are smarter than you in most cases.

You are the fly and they are the spider, so be quick as you run across their web.

[melvill]

Okay, wilagro, I'll rise to the bait, which I don't do very often here. What precisely about forward pricing is "gambling"? Is it gambling on production risk? Is it gambling on delivery risk? Is it gambling on quality risk? Is it gambling on transportation risk? Is it gambling on price risk?

I read your comment about "gambling against knowledgeable companies who are smarter than you in most cases." So what alternative do you recommend instead? Do nothing? Just sit and take whatever cash price the market offers when cash flow is needed?

Incidently one definition of "gambling" is to "to take a chance, where the mathematical odds are known or can be calculated". Forward pricing, at a profit, is giving a 100% chance that that price X volume will make the farm business profit. I can't, for the life of me, figure out what's wrong with that.

[wilagro]

Ah!! melvil...you are forgetting the obvious use of the CWB as another alternative to forward selling. The residual savings would more than make up for the "price gamble" involved in a good many cases. The best part is that it is OURS to direct and use.

MORE grains could also be added to the CWB roster as well in a non-compulsory manner to further compliment our choice of marketing.

[craig]

Wilagro
We have seen plenty of examples of the CWB forward selling our grain. They put us at as much risk as if we did it ourselves.They with their great wisdom and their market smarts, with worldwide weather surveillance and yet they are now scrambling to make enough sales at higher values to offset their sales at lower values. Sure bring on more crops for the board to sell but don't force us to sell our wheat and barley through the board. You are like Burbert. You don't want to forward sell but you are the first to complain when you are forced to sell at the market lows of harvest. That is your choice but don't blame someone else when your not happy with the price offered.

[mustardman]

I would sure like to "pool" my $.24 cent a pound y.mustard with todays .51 cent mustard. Good idea Willagro lets get more crops under the CWB.
I'll have to have a little chat with Mr. Anderson....

[silverback]

What if your board presold your mustard at $0.15 ???

Would that be ok also?

No complaints right??

[kamichel]

So the logic is let someone else sell your grain they don't care if the farmer make s a profit. The only people they have to deal with is the buyer , well at least they are happy./

[furrowtickler]

Willy- Go farm in China where the state controlls everything. This is a free and democratic country. Anyone grow HRSW this year? Very impresive to see that there is no movement by the borg until Jan. I hope you love haulin wheat when it is -30.

[mustardman]

Karmichael unless You are selling pumkins at the farmers market-which I doubt- then somebody else IS Selling your produce.
I don't Market my peas,lentils,chickpeas, mustard,canary,or any other Open Market crop - I AM Simply Taking A price.
Being a Price taker does not sound so smart and cocky as being a Marketer but that is what you and I and everyone else who sells these crops is doing.

[silverback]

That is a load of crap.

If you were offered a price of 10 cents for your mustard what would you do?

Would you "take" it? Probably not. You would keep it in your bin and hold it for a future day.

What about wheat board grain then. They have all the power to decide what it is worth and when to sell it. They started selling my wheat months ago even though I never told them I would let them "take" it. Then they keep selling and tell me next year what the final value was. The board is the biggest price taker in the whole world and you love it.

If you love the way the board makes you take their assigned wheat value, why grow anything else?

[mustardman]

Same question back at you - If you don't like board grains why do you grow them ?

Apparently durum producers in the states TOOK a price early ,about $7/bushel

[wedino]

>Apparently durum producers in the states TOOK a price early ,about $7/bushel<

Not all of them, Mustard. I have a friend in MT with a very large smile on his face this week.

[silverback]

Climate. What's your excuse?

[mustardman]

I continuous crop and durum on durum on durum doesn't work so well. Its called crop rotation- in case you haven't heard. and unfortunately all the other crops are on the old open market system which has been around since the time of christ.

[TOM4CWB]

Mustardman,

What you are saying... is that you have no self discipline to make a marketing plan to average prices.

You can have just as much a pool price on the mustard as any CWB Board crop... your choice... doesn't affect your neighbour... simple.

And if you decide to load containers and market your own non-board grain... you can; any day, any time, without threat of being cuffed and wearing leg irons!

The best of both worlds... if that is your desire.

I am sure you can hire a professional that can help you... if you are so dissatisfied with your marketing skills!

Somehow... I get the feeling from past posts... you do quite a good job marketing your non-boards... better than a simple average? NO?