Wheat Is Flying

[cottonpicken]

Something strange is happening,wheat is AGAIN vertical in overnight trade.

[brian99]

What impresses me is the volume at these levels. A gap higher here? Wow. Blow off top coming or sustained prices at these levels?

[SASKFARMER3]

And in CANADA we will be
Always a Brides made never a bride and miss out again on the high prices because of our useless CWB (NDP LIBERAL MACHINE)
For months I have been looking at the World S/D and Wheat has been low then it froze in USA(they lie first then the truth comes out poor crop) now its Canada turn to lie (Elevator samples look poor, shriveled, sprouted etc, heat hurt) watch Australia their dry. But again because our genius only look at moving farmers product they sold most for low price (Warbiton is happy) and again Canadian farmers will Miss out on a Big Rally.
Love the CWB!

[northfarmer]

cp, I am watching this closely as well, with my combine parked in my winter wheat waiting for the daily rain to quit.......the unfortunate thing is this global meteroric rise in wheat prices is not being translated down to my delivered price....I have nonboard feed buyers watching the climbing FPC daily and no doubt following what is going in US and Paris....Argentina and AUS...but my net price today board or non board is scarcely a relfection of this market reality......you did call this wheat market and good on you, i was reluctant to forward price much earlier when normally i would of as i did by into yours and others logic about a new paradigm in pricing, but how do i get more of that to my bottom line now?

[cottonpicken]

North,the only thing i can tell you is what i have done-extend the hell out of my credit and store grain.I had to bye a bagger because all my bins are full of grain going back to 04.This has been a risky thing(i wouldnt recommend it to anyone) to do but i firmly believed back in 04 that good things were coming.

As far as the board they should be able to capture some of this and the pros as of this date really arnt that bad.

If wheat does what oil does that puts us around 15$.

[northfarmer]

I have had a bagger for years....frankly could not afford to hold onto all that inventory all that time, moved it at a gain, but nothing like holding it to now would have done for me.....feed wheat local bids right now are in the 4.50 range and all the feed wheat (sprouted) some sold for $1.60 to get rid of a couple of years back would have made money with the bags......

so yeah the pros are improving, but you are admittedly a guy who has held on to wait for stronger markets years out only to have your returns now diluted by a pooling system with no market discipline....does that not frustrate you....you will get several dollars less a bushel for this crop if sold in this pool versus selling it on your own if we had an open market....so i know for the average farmer with little or no exposure to marketing after the reliance on the cwb to do it for him might have a hard time reading all this market stuff and making the right call, he might need or benefit from the pooling, but folks like you and others that have the skills, learnt outside of farming, or from trading and selling other commodities like canola and oats, they could truly and undoublty benefit from making these pricing decisions on their own and outside of the board.....marketing and pricing ones production is such a critical succes factor to farming/business....

[btjadenlepp]

best you can do is a CWB Basis contract. i know everybody hates them, but if you can plug your nose and suck up the stupid basis, it does reduce your reliance on the pool and gives you control over pricing.

if history is any lesson, the basis and adjustment factor are only going to get worse as the futures blow off.

[northfarmer]

I agree on the basis, this is actually what one of my buyers is proposing, takes the pool out of the equation and once locked puts me on the market in the US

[NeilS]

I did just what Brenda sujested and took out a basis contract for zero basis, and am glad I did.

I have not sold any wheat into the pool for 5 years now, all of it going through basis contracts, and All of it at a premium to the pooled price. I will never participate in the pool again if I can avoid it.

[poorboy]

Cottonpicken,

Would you have not been better to have sold your grain in 2004 if it was top quality and then traded futures to capitalize on the wheat rally?

The basis on 1 cwrs wheat had been $20 over and now is a negative basis. Perhaps in relation to the futures prices in 2004, the cwb may have extracted more value than they are today.

If you had feed wheat then that is a different story.

How do you like your grain bagger? Do you fill it with a grain cart, truck, or ?