CDN Canola 2015-16... 16mmt supply not now a problem

[TOM4CWB]

Taken from Cliff Jamieson Canadian Grains Analyst DTN article below

"While Statistics Canada's surprise in July 31 stocks of 2.3 mmt could potentially lead to annual supplies over the 16 mmt level which could allow exports and domestic crush to maintain current levels, demand may be the limiting factor, given large supplies of global oilseeds and turbulence in China's market and the currencies of global buyers.

Cumulative canola exports as of week 4 total 637,900 mt, 13.8% ahead of the same week last year, a good start to the crop year (licensed exports only)."

[Guest]

does anyone put any stock in stats can report ? they're still looking for seeded acreage reports ?

[TOM4CWB]

Obviously the Trade knew... which is why they had good basis and exported 636 thousand tonnes in the first 4 weeks of 2015-16. Almost in one swoop... got the extra canola gone... and cash in our/my farms bank account.

Thank you everyone... for doing a great marketing job... and the railroads for decent performance the last while!

Cheers!

[Oliver88]

The CWB estimate is 12 MMT, which works out to approximately a 30 bpa average across prairies. Apparently they had the most detailed survey and covered 3100 miles in Western Canada. (I believe Larry Weber's estimate is similar?)

A 35 bpa average across prairies = 14 MMT production. This seems high if there was a drought in a significant area.

So a 35 bpa average the 2.3 MMT mystery number Stats Can came up with will get us to a 16 MMT.

Personally my WAG is canola supplies will get tight starting about in March but will be a bad price until than.

[TOM4CWB]

Oliver,

Plenty of 70bu/ac fields on our farm... and close to that on others in heart of drought by Barrhead. Don't count us out! Later planted wheat is an average yield in many places around here. Early wheat took it hard... no doubt. CWRS Got sprayed and cut... some 16-18 percent proteins. 30bu. gives 40bu for AB average.

[TOM4CWB]

Sorry Oliver... thought you were talking wheat! My Mistake!

Canola WILL be best crop/paying crop on our farm. Could be long term average yield.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry to tell you this Tom but your canola isn't a 70 maybe a 45 but probably 38.

[TOM4CWB]

SF3,

AS I posted above... I thought Oliver was talking wheat... your about right on our Canola... 38 is about average... but pods are big... seeds filled nicely with cool weather here... will be interesting to see when the combines roll on Canola!!!