World grain stocks are to end the new season at their highest in nearly 30 years, the International Grains
Council said, ditching expectations of a fall in inventories as it upgraded to a record its wheat output estimate. Global
inventories of wheat and coarse grains combined will rise by 2m tonnes to 447m tonnes in 2015-16, "a 29-year
peak", the IGC said, reversing expectations that production would fall behind consumption for the first time in three
years. The revision reflected a hike of 18m tonne to 1.99m tonnes in the forecast for world grains production, "tied to
larger-than-expected wheat and barley crops in the [former Soviet Union] and the European Union", the council said.
The world wheat crop was upgraded by 10m tonnes to 720m tonnes, putting it in line with last season's record high.
Larger crop supplies, in implying reduced need for buyers to pay up to secure supplies, tend imply weaker prices
and the council highlighted declines in soybean and wheat values in particular over the past month "amid prospects
for bumper availability". "More recently, outside markets weighed, with concerns about global economic growth
adding to bearish sentiment," the IGC said. Wheat values, as measured by a council index, have fallen by 4.3% over
the past month, "with limited fresh international demand". Soybean prices have dropped by 6.7%, with the IGC highlighting
that "signs of slowing economic growth in China and associated worries about prospects for import demand"
by the top buying country for the oilseed had added "to the bearish tone".
Council said, ditching expectations of a fall in inventories as it upgraded to a record its wheat output estimate. Global
inventories of wheat and coarse grains combined will rise by 2m tonnes to 447m tonnes in 2015-16, "a 29-year
peak", the IGC said, reversing expectations that production would fall behind consumption for the first time in three
years. The revision reflected a hike of 18m tonne to 1.99m tonnes in the forecast for world grains production, "tied to
larger-than-expected wheat and barley crops in the [former Soviet Union] and the European Union", the council said.
The world wheat crop was upgraded by 10m tonnes to 720m tonnes, putting it in line with last season's record high.
Larger crop supplies, in implying reduced need for buyers to pay up to secure supplies, tend imply weaker prices
and the council highlighted declines in soybean and wheat values in particular over the past month "amid prospects
for bumper availability". "More recently, outside markets weighed, with concerns about global economic growth
adding to bearish sentiment," the IGC said. Wheat values, as measured by a council index, have fallen by 4.3% over
the past month, "with limited fresh international demand". Soybean prices have dropped by 6.7%, with the IGC highlighting
that "signs of slowing economic growth in China and associated worries about prospects for import demand"
by the top buying country for the oilseed had added "to the bearish tone".
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