USDA Acreage and Stocks Report

[charliep]

Will give you the numbers. You can look at. Market higher soybeans/corn. Wheat lower. Canola higher with soybeans.

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS"]USDA[/URL]

[mcfarms]

youre not kidding about the higher Charlie

[charliep]

It is a nice rally. Realizing I will get beaten on, I would be managing expectations in how far and how long the rally lasts. My sense remains this is a market that will put in summer highs. Unless something else comes into play, there is still a lot of crop being produced in the world. Buyers will move to other suppliers. Agriculture would not escape a world economic meltdown if it were to occur.

On what you think you have to sell, manage your emotions and have some pricing/contracting plans in place. Discipline. Nothing wrong with owning puts.

[charliep]

Been around too long. Summer weather based rallies are not new.

Sustainable rallies are demand based unless there is a supply disaster.

[Rareearth]

Thanks for your thoughts and comments Charlie.

I think your comments are reasonable, and better yet believable. As tough as it is at home there are good stocks or reasonable supplies for the near term, communication and logistics are better globally than ever before.

We are still susceptible to the poop of the Black Swans though.

[Braveheart]

I agree we'll see summer highs. I see opportunity for some good pricing, some ddc, or puts/futures for some.

Demand from domestic crush will likely eat up 80% of the canola crop this year leaving what for export?

Re beans, while rain makes pain right now, if the tap turns off in the US that rain might make more grain than currently forecast.

I can see these prices and they're good. I can't see the future and it's an unknown and a risky world. We'll be starting pricing now.

[charliep]

The observations on the oilseed side really comes down to China and how they do things. I note the CBT soybean rally was driven by meal. Soyoil has gone back to sleep except as follower.

China will also determine the fate of canola to a large. How much already on the books? Will they exit contracts for the right price differential? If canola and its products (China buys oil and meal) get too high, will they willingly switch to different alternatives? They are the market maker/creator of demand.

South America has lots of soybeans for sale. Everyone knows this but the market keeps going higher. The price signal is for South American farmers to increase production. El nino?

[errolanderson]

Charlie, great rally today, but data was just supportive, not bullish IMO. Overdone to the upside on funds scrambling to get out of their short positions.

China economy is a big question mark. They are in a recession as is Brazil, Russia and India. The BRIC commodity juggernaut is in-trouble.

China 's stock indexes are now in bear territory with a 20 percent washout of late. This economic situation will impact their canola purchases into the new crop year. Sense big volatility in ICE futures this summer.

[farmaholic]

I'm an inventory seller not a paper trader/speculator. And for fear of being called a broken record, I don't feel comfortable pre-selling any of what is attempting to grow in the field. I guess I will have to sit this one out, not even a DDC. The "insurance" comes at a cost.

Charlie, what call and/or put value would you buy under any strategy?

[Oliver88]

Priced some wheat after the close today.