drought 1988 and 2015

[bucket]

If the canola crop is reduced by 6 mmt at today's price that 3.3 billion dollars out if the economy.

If wheat is off 7mmt it's another 2.5 billion.

Durum peas lentils are all burning up this weekend. Millions lost every hour.

As opposed to a million dollar rain it's now billion dollar drought. And shouldn't be ignored.

Go figure it's looking like one hell of a mess.

When it was too wet I had my glyphosate bill. And had no crop.

Now I have expenses and have no crop.

I am pretty sure every farming conservative MP that got that 1988 payout understood the relief it provided farmers retailers and the economy as a whole.

So why do they sit and ignore the problem.

In 1988 the federal government sent out 850 million dollars to float the farm economy.

Maybe because Quebec and ontario were impacted it got done quicker I don't know.

But our elected officials have seen this before - isn't it time to show some interest in the constituents that have elected them for over 2 decades?

In 1988 farmers were receiving payments by harvest.

850 million in 1988 is what in today's dollars and given the massive change in farming practices that government supported - what should the number be?

[ALBERTAFARMER4]

Zero. Maybe it's time for people to sell land instead of begging for government money.

[FarmRanger]

I remember Mulroney getting a lot of abuse back then (some of it deservedly perhaps), but the drought assistance payments were extremely helpful to a lot of cash strapped farmers back then. Budgets were extremely tight even with the bailout, but without it, we wouldn't be farming anymore.
For the guys who've budgeted for bumper crops and high prices to justify buying overpriced land, this probably won't help enough, but it's surprising how much a drought payment can help for a lot of farmers.

[bucket]

Albertafarmer

Interesting response. But you and I know it doesn't work that way.

Otherwise government wouldn't be bailing out the auto industry, bombardier. Or giving tax break or royalty breaks to steel oil and gas companies.

I agree about selling land but unfortunately the guys paying the most are out of the market because of the land ownership review. Where do you think land prices go if people enmasse start selling. Then you are left with, this time for sure, who will farm it.

Maybe the likes of broad acre? One earth?
Wild horse group? Assiniboa capital. ? Palliser Farmland management? All good name but the guys in those offices don't get on tractors and when you lose the youngest 50 to 60 year olds this time you lose the next generation as well.

For those that don't understand - 40 years ago there were 4 boys still wanting to chase the dream maybe one stuck it out. Farm families were bigger.

This time there is one son and he isn't looking at dad and saying he will mortgage his career to keep the farm afloat. Nope this time it's let's sell take the money and enjoy.

There is a world of hurt coming and the fallout will not be good. Much like a predicted drought eventually they are right same goes for what happens to the farming communities.

I seen it in the 70s and 80s - when I look back it wasn't good then and it's even worse now what will happen.

As far as begging for money not sure why business is granted or handed money while farmers are forced to beg. I struggle with the logic. Evraz got tax breaks. Potash and oil companies get there royalties restructured. What's the difference - it's still a handout. Just not begging.

[canolacrazy]

the eighties were a lot different than today. there isn't any stomach by governments to send out direct subsidy cheques to farmers anymore. not when the taxpayer sees the multi-million dollar equipment in the field and hears about the price being paid for land. crop insurance, agristablity (such as it is) and agrinvest. there's your future. after that it's about having enough equity to pony up to try another year and hope for better.

[farmaholic]

It drives me ****ing nuts how some people think we should not spend money to farm, whether inputs or iron. So don't progress with the rest of industry, stay the ****ing peasants we were always meant to be. It's the risk that is the problem and the lack of control, things out or your control can blow the economics of it right out of the water. I think this is beyond what is available through the programs offered. I will survive but it sure is an uncomfortable feeling.

[bucket]

This is about a weather related problem completely out of farmers control.

As far as the million dollar machinery and people looking at it , it drives an economy. If people wanted everyone to farm with discers they better have a good hard look at what this province would look like.

Exit all the manufacturers that provide jobs here.

Look there has been a shitload of money spent on this crop that is going to sink farms, I am not sure that sitting idly by and watching it happen is the right thing to do.

They didn't do it in 1988 and they politicians that got the money then and in office today, should look back and see what would have happened to their farms if they would have been ignored the same way as today.

Many would be still sweeping floors to pay for that disaster. I remember the economy of saskatchewan after the drought it took years for this economy to recover. The refinery in regina started the economy and it it took off but remember the upgrader was government money as well.

So some should take off their rose colored glasses and study some facts.

[silverback]

There are areas in alberta that HAVE had very good rains and will have a GREAT crop! There is no way they need or deserve a dime from the taxpayer this year. However, there are many who are like bucket, missed everything. Technology and a little bit of work could target the worst affected farms.

[bucket]

In other threads it was said that drew predicted this.

A guy from Kansas and yet the government of canada has no weatherman.

So why didn't the ag department issue the drought warning and tell farmers not to seed. Or seed at your own peril. We would have all been money ahead. And so would the government.

Why? Because they didn't know either. And no one wants to see a drought either by weather or by not seeding. The results are the same for the economy.

This year not seeding would have been a better money maker for me. But I am not wired that way. And at the time based on the chance to catch a 1/2 inch rain the best managed practice said to seed a crop.

[sumdumguy]

Voices in the dark! Did you forget who's at the helm?

[sumdumguy]

Who is fighting for grain movement when railways refuse to pick up our grain, who turfed almost all farm program, where is CGC when grain is misgraded? who virtually destroyed every western gov't department to move it to the maritimes? They just look at farmers and say blah-blah-blah. Did you ever try to get a call back from ministers?

[vvalk]

You guys talk about expensive land and equipment. What planet do you live on? Does Ford, GM or bombardier or even the oil sands not have expensive land or equipment? They receive huge subsidies/incentives every single year and then a big bailout when it gets really bad. Why is farming different? You need to invest in your business. What's actually different is that the price of food really is not a true market value so you can justify subsidies to farmers. We compete with producers around the world that are subsidized largely to keep food affordable. Remember most farms are generational so don't apologize if your worth millions, it took decades or a century of very hard work and huge risk. This has nothing to do with whether there should be a bailout. if we were like the oil sands, our land would be all free and just pay based on whether we make any money. Never forget we don't get full value for our products based on the nature of what we " manufacture". So we can't, in general, make the big bucks that get us through the bad times. We can't make the margins oil companies do at $100 oil to cover the losses when things go south
Lastly Agri insurance? Lucky to cover variable costs. We pay 60% of this premium to get back at best 2/3rds of your expenses
Agri invest. Sure can't complain about free money. But really irrelevant to keep your business going
Agrisatbility. Actually is cash flow negative. Pay a premium that is impossible to trigger. In fact we pay premiums based on the old calculation and you get only coverage n the new calculation.

[farmaholic]

Thank you vvalk!

[riders2010]

vvalk are you feeling alright?
when I mentioned most of those same things you were against it prior posts, but any way maybe you re dry this year. That's what happens time and time again people talk big until it affects them oh we don t need aid, ya well if I had 5 years bumper crop lentils and that price I wouldn't and shouldn't get aid either on a one year blimp. But that's whats wrong with all of this we re supposed to have a program in place for this situation and we don t. The conservatives made a shitty program even worse and not only not to pay those that need a break most but it will pay those huge dollars that don t or shouldn t need it. Then that *** ditz will stand there with a finger up his ass next to a 50 bushel canola crop where there was rain and say we re here for farmers.

[vvalk]

Find where I was against what I just said. No I am not dry. getting there but crops look pretty good yet. I have always said the new agrisatbility didn't work since I was involved in the gf2 negotiations. I am the furthest thing from a socialist but the business of agriculture isn't a true free market so it's hard to preach that we should be able to stand on our own.