Canola Prices

[SASKFARMER3]

If the pattern doesn't change on weather all the smoke in the office rooms can't pull a rabbit out of this mess even Alberta!
So here it is 12.275 total production if we're lucky and no fall frost!

[charliep]

Perhaps we both can agree government doesn't control weather.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie, this looks like a one in 200 year event to me...

DTN this morning; "Hotter Temperatures, More Dryness for W. Canada

The long days of summer are in place but we are seeing a weather pattern evolving that is quite similar to the persistent patterns of the mid and late winter into early spring. This pattern that is developing will feature a strong trough across central and east-central Canada while a strong ridge develops across the western U.S. poking northward into southwest Canada.

Despite an upper air pattern looking like February we are not expecting winter weather to be attached to this pattern. We will see some of the same anomalies as we saw during the late winter namely drier than normal conditions and above normal temperatures during the remainder of June and into at least the first week of July.

The hope of some widespread beneficial rainfall for the dried out central and western Prairies will be minimal at best during the next 10 days and the additional problem of hot temperatures are likely to be added to the equation as well. Like last winter when the western Prairies saw the warmest temperature anomalies and Manitoba saw readings a little colder at times the summer version should produce similar results.

Temperatures could reach as high as 35-40 degrees C (95-104F) for some parts of southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan during the next 5 days while readings across Manitoba run close to normal. Rainfall looks spotty at best out west with Manitoba more in line for a few showers once in a while.

As we move to the middle and end of next week we might see a modest opportunity for some scattered showers across the northern Prairies as a front drops southward but this system does not look like a beneficial rain producer. During the past week we have seen some spotty showers across western Canada with local areas seeing some help to soil moisture content. The spotty nature of last weeks' rains have helped a few but left most without much help.

The cause of the persistent dry weather pattern could be tied to the large area of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. This large area of warmer than normal waters has been in about the same location since last fall and some think has helped with the prevailing ridge through western North America. Today's SST anomaly analysis shows more of what we have seen for many of the past several months and in fact some intensification of the warm waters has been noted during the past month.

While there are many factors that cause and create the weather patterns around the globe at any given time it appears that this warm blob of water through the Gulf of Alaska may be an important factor in producing the dryness for western Canada. Given its' persistence we unfortunately have to favor the idea of above normal dryness for the critical next few weeks of crop development period. Temperatures are most likely to be hotter across the west than across Manitoba with rainfall more spotty for the west than across the east. Given this forecast we will probably see increasing coverage of crop stress and even failure due to dry conditions.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com"

[cottonpicken]

This will be an interesting short cover rally Years of sell it forward or your ****ed have lead i bet to the biggest offside trade in western canada.

I have tried and failed to find the physical volume vs paper trade in the food stuffs. Know it for other things.

If the speculators smell blood in the water look out.

[biglentil]

One of the best bets i have seen in a long time,going long canola futures. The only sniff the traders on the street have is the cocaine up there noses.

[tweety]

Bucket. Those guys had weeks to sell them off with minimal cost.

[iceman]

Cotton nailed it

Out

[bucket]

Weeks ago it still looked like a crop with rain in the forecast.

[TOM4CWB]

Tweety,
And we know how often weather forecasters are right... if they predict dry for 10 days... I bet they are WRONG more often than right.
But with the upperridge...(that Dew predicted) this time they might be right... I sure wouldn't bet on big rain this year.
Cheers!!!

[Guest]

bucket , I sure do like the way you get right to the point ! and don't beat around the bush