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Marketing this years Crop and Final Yields?

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    Marketing this years Crop and Final Yields?

    Well the funny thing on Monday after the Big Rain Event that didn't happen was how the radio and TV had farmers doing the Happy Dance.
    FM was all I have to say.
    This is a year of hit and Mist showers. Yes two drops hitting the ground is a rain event.
    Funny we have 5% of our total acreage that drastically needs a rain. Yes I said it but this land has missed every shower all year. One mile south had over a inch this last rain event.
    So for today what is the consensus on Yields as Charlie is talking the market knows. The market is Manipulated that is a given. The market is corrupt that is a given. The market is their for the buyers that is a given.
    Yea the market knows jack shit.
    All year I have been saying the Canola acres were going to be down. Then the frosts happened to take a few more and the heat will take a few more leaving one small Canadian Canola crop.
    Seed is virtually all gone with the reseeding that took place. Will they distort the market with some pie in the sky total crop size.
    But then their is also the Huge lentil and pea acreage. Peas do need water but hate to get their feet to wet. Lentils that bloom at a couple inches don't really yield all that well.
    The Faba been experiment, Ah the plant likes water.
    Flax acreage was extremely high this year. Flax needs water for good yield, short flax and less water leaves low yields.
    Barley trying to put a head out this weekend is in for a bad time. Short thin shitty yields.
    Oats needs a drink now and then and a skinny thin oat kernel makes for no weight and low yield.
    Durum acreage was up but even a thin durum crop can yield something but a thin durum crop still needs water.
    See one common theme here its water the thing I cursed, Hated still is the main ingredient for a great crop. What we had the past 10 was not normal. What were experiencing this year is definitely not a traditional year. But like I said earlier its a hit and mist kind of year.
    Contracts will definitely not get filled by some. Listening to your farm crop specialist and hopeing things will bet better is not going to work. Dealing with the short fall now is a better solution. See their isn't a huge area that will do totally awesome to fill all the contracts.
    Lots of crop was seeded early so the stage it is at is critical this week. Heat is on the way to probably take yield away again.
    But wait this is Canada where every crop report tells how wonderful it is.
    Politicians and Crop groups and Industry said we were reaching a new plateau in Agriculture in Canada Yields had no place to go but up.
    I said it happened because of excess rain.
    Welcome to Canada.

    #2
    the good thing that might come out of this , is that people will quit signing these stupid , horseshit , one sided contracts ! hopefully people that are getting burnt will put details on here to educate others . we actually signed up a little bit this year , more than usual after listening to the experts . we have been very careful over the years , did some peas a few years back and didn't get seed back cause they couldn't swim . elevator couldn't of cared less , even charged a large fee for admin . wake up guys, tell them to shove these contracts up their ass next year

    Comment


      #3
      From the Marketing side.
      Rather easy if you have a crop coming I wouldn't get to excited when they come around and try to convince you to sell your peas or canola or barley or wheat or oats or flax etc.
      The USA has issues in Grade of HRS and The soy and corn wont be as high as their talking because of floods. Water like that makes mud not grain.
      Australia will be dry and also does any one really believe Russia and Ukraine have a bumper when what farmer could put fert down if the value of the currency was junk status.
      Also sooner or later Monsanto is going to convince a gov in SA to make Farmer actually pay up on royalties its starting in Argentina. Time will tell.

      Comment


        #4
        Last year was funny for sure. My wheat contracts were months behind. Actully one from January was delivered in Sept. No payment to me for any delay it was just a cost of doing business.
        The hail took out 4 of 5 quarters of peas. Went to get out was told their is a fee that I knew their would be. Wrote a check for almost $8,000.00 that was the difference and last year their was a huge pea crop coming and prices were dropping. This year don't count on the big yields as all of western Canada is in this mist and rain and drought zone.
        Get out now because if you wait unfortunate your going to pay more this year.

        Comment


          #5
          I agree 100% case , maybe this will open some eyes as to who the contracts are really written for.

          Comment


            #6
            At the farm show last week the merchants were still trying to buy .23 canary and .38 yellow mustard , these prices are basically the same for 3 months now!
            HELLO PEOPLE! Time to wake up

            Comment


              #7
              The way its looking today I will have bins rattling epmty in the wind and lots of room for the 2015 crop. The little bit of grain I have left over from 2014 is staying home....even if there are "estimates" of "burdensome" carryover.

              Still hoping for a reprieve from this punishment and if things continue as is, stay of execution.

              As said before, tick tock tick tock, alarms are already going off in some areas and set to go off in others soon. This isn't going to be pretty.

              Comment


                #8
                Carryover may be burdensome, but not in the traditional sense

                Comment


                  #9
                  Thank god I drug my heels this spring. No new crop priced. Need one rain to get seed back.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Crop insurance guy said if I get a rain maybe some weeds will grow so a cattle guy might get interested to cut it for feed. Lol.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      If it gets that bad, that cattle guys are scrounging in the weeds, there will be a government program to bring in feed. In other dry years cattle were moved to green pastures, but where are the green pastures, North Dakota?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        By luck only one load booked for fall. This upcoming heat wave will certainly hurt yields here. We have had anywhere from 1.5 to 2 inches of rain since May 1 depending which land got the shower. So I feel very lucky but the crops will quickly dry up. Canola is getting ready to bolt and wheat is ready to head out but is less than a foot tall. The heat is going to hurt yields for sure.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Its not over till the 10th of July. This crop can hang on for one hot spell... (28-30) for a couple of days... but then it needs some serious rain. If first week of July is hot and dry (the upper ridge does not break down) then this will turn ugly quick. If it turns cool and moist... we still could have an average crop.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            It's very spotty but you have to look long and hard to see a GOOD canola field in west central sask. yields will be way down and if the heat hits this weekend and no moisture we are done.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              I would like to know what Tom means by "average". And for whom?

                              Comment

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