Canola Price Rise Factors

[crusher]

I see canola up about 8% since the frost. Every little bit helps. I also see soyoil up 10% since the biofuel announcement, same time frame. End result, canola rally could be due to the increase in the value of the oil, no premium associated with the frost. There could be more fundamental upside to go.

On a more important note there is a craft beer festival in Edmonton this weekend.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea the retarded sister never is understood she's always behind! Fm the buyers are crooks! Enjoy the beer fest it's Mosaic on Regina starting tonight

[charliep]

Just for the market side/to put a price to the rally, I took a look at new crop canola bids for a grain company. New crop bids $10.75 ish. Basis $15 under ish. At the money put - $24 ish.

Not sure what your production potential/compfort level is. Not sure what everyone has priced to date. Just encouraging everyone to pay attention/look for the opportunities.

[charliep]

Put is November by the way.

[ado089]

Basis is widening every day. They seem pretty reluctant to pay over 10.50 for them.

[furrowtickler]

Right now - we will not price a thing till its in the bin without a AOG. One early Sept frost and 4 mill ac will be toast.
1 .5 late reseed, and another 2.5 mill that is either in dust or delayed by 10-15 days due to frost, dryness and beatle pressure - JMO

[crusher]

Basis is ugly. Futures are rising. To borrow a phrase from NAT, get out the hammer.

[furrowtickler]

Good god - there are guys reseeding with L150 north of us , just think about that. Way bigger set a b's than me

[errolanderson]

If basis levels stay ugly, consider put options as a price guard. Keep an eye on Nov 480, 490, 500 put options.

Personally bullish basis and futures heading toward winter market. My fear is the possible fallout of another brewing debt crisis before the year is out. That could spear commodity values in general.

Global economics are getting even more bizarre.