Macro theory

[cottonpicken]

Lots and lots of good discussions in other places about just what the hell is going on.

A sort of consensus is starting to form its a little hodge podgy but here goes.

We are in a zero growth,zero inflation zero rate world.

The zero interest rate policy has really screwed things up. It has pulled forward future demand,which now seems to be stalling,ie oil copper iron ore but it also contributed to increasing supply,cheaper financing needs things that should have been put on hold where made affordable.

Demand is really crippled from consumer debt loads,wage stagnation,and out right unemployment i think you could kick in taxes also.

Governments seem unable to fuel any growth with public works projects because of existing budget deficits and debt and taxation levels

Overall inflation is low but it is there in certain areas. The stock market bond market healthcare and some services. The system needs really inflation but all that capital is blowing bubbles. Money supply is being increased and debased but it is not helping the real economy.

So you guys who know the supply/demand numbers on ag(i wish I did) should really chime in here. I'm guessing but think the swings could get ugly bad or beatifull good. A lot of liquidity could swing in or out.

Ethanol corn really bugs me. I dont see a recovery in oil anytime soon barring an external event.

[Hopalong]

Ethanol was touted in the past as an octane enhancer for gasoline.
Environmentalists saw it as preferable to lead.
Anyone have comments?

[blackpowder]

Ethanol relies on support in Washington.

[Hopalong]

Farm lobby, including growers, put a lot of pressure onto Washington.
Environmentalists may have rethought their position on using food for fuel but it is still renewable energy.
Perhaps fewer and fewer farmers as per cent of population means less ability to influence politicians.
Would not count farm lobby out just yet.

[hobbyfrmr]

Ethanol helps use up the glut of corn. This time around the unexpected problem is that the oil price dropped. Who woulda thunk it!
I still like ethanol to use up the abundance of grain. Without the ethanol industry feed grain prices would be painfully low.

[farmaholic]

Really, how "green" is ethanol?

[cottonpicken]

Not only feed grains but everthing else as farmers move acres out. But if we catch a supply issue look out b

[macdon02]

Its all about the ddgs these days, ethanol had gone to buy product status. Anyone explain if ethanol is crap fuel why does Nascar run it? From talking to people that are on the boards of some of the e plants, big oil loves E cuz they don't need to refine the crude as much and can make more $ by blending E in.