Prairie production and acres chart

**bucket** · Mar 8, 2015, 16:20

Thank you.

Now can you draw a line that would represent a trend line yield and see where we need to be for transportation logistics for 10 years out?

It will be a steady line up so why is this not reflecting in today's capacity.

Happy shareholders but a big lost opportunity.

**farmaholic** · Mar 8, 2015, 16:41

Thank you farming101. About doubled production in 44 years. Looks like Producers have done their part in economic growth...

**farming101** · Mar 8, 2015, 16:49

The production totals shows that weather and growing conditions have the final say.

Still a trend is clear.
A big guess would be 53 million to 63 million tonnes for 2015 increasing to 57 to 67 ten years out.
Any outlier years are liable to be higher rather than lower. Look at the result from 2014, even with excess moisture and flooded acres. The ability to produce even with mediocre weather has arrived.

**Braveheart** · Mar 8, 2015, 17:11

I know this is destined to be linked to transportation woes, but, I'm encouraged that prices have stayed at the level they're at given the rise in production and the big spike. It shows that demand is keeping pace fairly well.

**farmaholic** · Mar 8, 2015, 17:16

Farmaholic wetblanket says production costs are eating up lots...

But thank you for pointing that out Braveheart, true.

**hobbyfrmr** · Mar 8, 2015, 19:03

Farming101

Thank you for all the graphs. They are great and i really appreciate the information.

**Hopperbin** · Mar 8, 2015, 19:18

The summerfallow trends are pretty straight if taking in all the years. 6 years would put it pretty much at 0. 6 more years would put it at minus 6 percent give or take a few percentage points if trend holds. We need to start double cropping. Unsustainable. Very interesting to look at.

**freewheat** · Mar 8, 2015, 20:44

Those graphs tell the story of what I was saying in the mallee thread.

Thanks for posting them. I think it explains our movement problem far better than any other explanation.

I wish they had a fert/fung. per acre chart too.

**grassfarmer** · Mar 8, 2015, 21:25

I'll throw in a random suggestion here rather than start another thread. Seeing the difference the reduction of summer fallow acres has had are none of you tempted to seed an annual legume "plow down" crop on a percentage of your acres?

Short the grain market acres and ease the delivery/transport headaches as well as reducing reliance on expensive fertilizer.

Instead of summer fallow grow a crop that fixes you 150-200lbs of N, improves the soil structure, uses up some of the surplus moisture, adds another crop to a rotation and boosts helpful soil microbes and beneficial insects and would boost the succeeding crop by more than just the effect of the nitrogen.

In my forage situation I don't consider sowing a grain crop for silage now without adding in a legume component.

Prairie production and acres chart