Global markets have obviously been fixed on crude dropping 50% over the last 8 months, hog prices have also dropped by approx the same amount. The lesson taken from hogs; supply led rallies are difficult to sustain without legitimate demand.
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Pork production has been running well analyst projections. Western Cdn bids have lost about 14 cents/kg over the past week.
This unfortunately is adding to the U.S. meat glut that appears developing for the last half of 2015. -
hog/cattle spread broke 80 cents, appears headed to 90, demand for beef more inelastic than ever thought.
Why do hogs not fit the profile for those commodities that make up super cycle ?Comment
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Cheap and abundant U.S. feed supply has a lot to do with the increase in pork production. But this has encouraged feeding both hogs and cattle to record weights. Poultry is in the same camp.
Not sure how super this cycle is . . .Comment
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1 calf a year compared to 24 piglets a year might have something to do with it?Comment
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You can put sows on the ground tomorrow if you have space and in 6 months have finished pigs coming out the back door. I retain breeding heifers this year - it's more than 2 years by the time their progeny hit the marketplace. US exports drove lots of the price increase in 2014.Comment
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errol said: Cheap and abundant U.S. feed supply has a lot to do with the increase in pork production.
Tweety says, so the subsidized base feed product for food security value adding is working well.
Government whispers, all good.Comment
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USDA corn report released this morning.
U.S. ending stocks pegged at 1.83 billion bu vs year ago at 1.23 billion bu, a 48% hike year over year.
This is largely due to the insanely high corn yields produced last summer. But also ethanol usage is impacted by the collapse of crude oil.
Don't think this is a government conspiracy . . . .Comment
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There is also a noticeable decline in pork demand in China despite the lower prices. China's recession appears deepening.
Fundamentals remain very weak in the global hog complex.Comment
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