Worst Investment Out There? Farmland, Investor Says

[Oliver88]

What was Gartman's oil prediction for 2014?
The average expert predicted $94....read this in WSJ a while back.

SF3- there is lots of optimism in your area if $73/acre, 3year contracts are normal.
Might be an opportunity for you to diversify and rent out some of your further away or wettest land?? Wear the landlord hat for a few years on some land?

[agstar77]

No one can pedict the future.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes they can history repeats over and over. Here we go again.

[jd3007]

There are a number of growers I know who are hoping for a repeat of the late 80s early 90s. High early 80s land prices, high interest, drought and low commodity prices forced many growers to give land back to financial institutions. FCC and the banks where overwhelmed with land that needed to get rid of. There where many farms that bought and paid for land in the 70s and went in to the 80s pretty much debt free. These were the guys that cashed in on reposed land deals because they still had their 1970/early 80s cash and paid for farms.$30000 - $40000 bought you some pretty decent land back in the early 90s. I know many of these growers and after the bank deals quit they pretty much quit buying too. It is these guys who are bitching the loudest about land prices because they want it for nothing. Its that old sask NDP attitude. I know because my whole family is this way! I still have family and neighbors wanting things to go back to that point so they can buy again! I along with a number of other younger guys in the area have been buying land yearly where cash flow and the banker permits. No one is paying record highs but area averages. There will be a point where we will all quit buying and at that point I want things to maintain or go up. Anyone that has an asset would hope this happens. A correction is coming but since most of us started with cheap land bought some average and a little high, going back to average again isn't such a bad thing if you are still buying. I don't know if we will go back to the late 80s and early 90s and heaven forbid this happen. I started at that time so hopefully lessons learned from that crash can get you through the next one.

[GrahamS]

I actually thought farmland had peaked or certainly was looking like a risky investment. Hearing Dennis Gartman is bearish changes that a bit and maybe makes me bullish again.

I can't believe a professional would say you won't see $75 oil in his lifetime unless a priest was giving the Last Rights. These people are entertainers looking for a headline not serious financial people. I would love to buy a $75 crude oil call that expired on Mr Gartmans death. I would probably sell farmland to buy that.

[farmaholic]

What this simple hayseed farmer will find interesting is when the correction occurs, how much will it fall AND how long will it take to regain whats been given up. I don't see the bottom falling out, we are at a new level, but.....

Any thoughts on how deep for how long.... I hope some are good at holding their breath (comment made for jest).

I've kinda run my course for land investment, I'll
help the kid but not so much for me anymore.

I want everyone who had the balls to risk it to
succeed.

[freewheat]

It will fall hard IMO, if net returns continue their dismal course. Somehow all the new iron and bins, and other stuff that the good years bought need to be paid for.

Even in best case scenarios in terms of net returns, 2000 dollar land is impossible IMO to make feasible.

I have asked on here MANY times, for someone to pencil out how it works. The only answer I get is usually that "it doesn't have to pencil out", or " the other land will spread the cost".

At some point there IS going to be a reckoning.

The worst thing is, I truly do not think most will see it coming. Most seem in true denial.

For the record, I do not hope for it, I do not wish for it. But I do think it is coming. Especially if Sask turned again into a more typical arid zone, where rain is hard to come by for even a few short years...

[ALLFARMER]

I read the statistic that at $50/oil only 20 percent of the wells in western canada are profitable.

Things in GP have come to a near screeching hault. So my house that the realtor says went up 15k in 8 months....ya maybe not so much.

Oil had to go down....since i got into it lol yup the cows I sold a year and a half ago would have now been worth another 150k more.

Aaaaa first world problems.