Back to Wheat

[bucket]

Yup. .... The margins are the same now as they were then.

But it's a valid question where did the money go?

All I know is the reason I bitched about the board is the exact same reasons as we have today. And no one gives a shit.

[farmaholic]

When I first got here I remember a lot of bitching and moaning about the _ _ _. What surprises me is that others are surprised about the current situation. Its not all good and not all bad but I do feel at least as screwed if not more than with the old regime.

Can't believe we are still having this conversation, what did you really expect?

Canadian grain marketing has come full circle. 360 degrees.

[bucket]

Not quite. Farmers are being taken to the tune of billions.

But not one politician has the fortitude to correct it.


It doesn't matter if it's the missing fx. Buying feed selling as a 2. Lost sales due to rail issues. Etc.

Everyone knows it's happening but can't be proven.

Politicians say it's no longer their problem. Take it up with the multi billion grainco.

[Hopperbin]

Furrow that would be mike from where with whom?

[bucket]

A quick reverse says it's P&H.

[CptnObvious]

Mike from P&H at N.B.
Bucket: The CWB was audited by DeLoitte Touche every year; no money was missing. And Dr. Richard Grey figures he has proven where the money is going now, about $3 billion a year scooped up by the graincos because now they can.

[farmaholic]

For some its worked out quite well. Anyone who was lucky enough not to be able to move any or all of 2013 quality durum cashed in this year and could get rid of all of it at a good price and get paid in full. Net probably isn't equivalent to US peak bids but hey. You have "marketing freedom" but its coming at a cost, any more than the old system? Be your own judge. More smoke and mirrors and sleight of hand stuff. Basis- the great debate. It can be calculated when you know the net you're paid from the futures month used. What is the grain worth instore at the port versus what you were paid, is that the "true" basis. What makes up the basis? I think it is in our best interest to know the value of each component that makes it up. How else do you know if it is reasonable? Basis for wheat will be no different than canola, if the Grainco has no home for wheat expect it to be wide, how else do they discourage Producer selling? New era, not that I like it much. Infancy. If it doesnt mature, kill it!!!!

[farmaholic]

Re durum, sometimes luck trumps skill.
To bad everything is clearer through the rearview mirror than the windshield.

[Braveheart]

North Central Grain, Bisbee ND, is $5.47 USD for 14% pro DNS. That's for no damage, 13.5% moisture.

I would say a cash bid of $6.50 CAD for somewhere on the prairies for 13.5 % pro, 14.5% moisture has fx in the basis. Actually, for pricing mid continent in today's market that's not bad. Minnesota/eastern ND cash bids have eroded down to around $5.63 14% DNS.

To get to Mpls or anywhere south of the border, there are brokerage fees, transportation, transponders to buy or the fee to pay, etc.

[jdepape]

Coming to this one late too but here goes.

Yes, FX is in the basis.
And, no, despite what bucket says and believes, you are not getting ****ed because of it.

I've been criticized for posts that are too long so let me say this:

This is the way they have been doing it in Ontario (corn and beans) since Christ was in knee pants. They developed this "convention of the trade" because it makes managing their hedge book much more efficient, which means lower risk - which means better pricing.

It doesn't hide the FX. You can easily do the math to see what FX rate they are using.