Mato Grosso Soy Needs More Rain

[SASKFARMER3]

The USDA raised its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop, but farmers in the top-producing state of Mato Grosso aren't too confident about the crop just yet, says DTN's Alastair Stewart.
That's because, over the last 15 to 20 days, the heavy rains typical of Jan. in Mato Grosso haven't fallen and temperatures have been very high.
With light regular showers still falling in many areas, there is no talk of losses, but most of the state's crop is now hitting the pod-filling stage and in need of more consistent rain.
Dr Cordonnier has trimmed his view on Brazil soybeans to 93.5 million tonnes versus a previous estimate of 94.0 million. The USDA went for 95.5 million on Monday.
Argentina’s 2014/15 soybean crop is estimated at 54.5 million tonnes versus a previous estimate of 55.0 million
Basically the next two to three weeks tell the story. Its like a wet august in Canada for soy. If they start getting heavy rain soy is balls to the wall if it stays dry. Hm might get interesting.
This is probably why Cargill came out yesterday with a canola price of $10.00 for delivery in March. They smell blood and are hoping farmers deliver.

[SASKFARMER3]

The info I'm getting and some of the pictures sent are looking a little thirsty.

[sumdumguy]

How far away are we from world famine? There's a hungry world out there. Me thinx it wouldn't take much of a drought to see upward pressure in the grains.

[SASKFARMER3]

But with the shit going on in the world and every commodity is crashing will the world pay, or will it be farmers giving crops away when the world is actually short food. Time will tell.
But at least its one bright spot in a dismal winter. Yes farmers will suffer in SA but hey we have had our fair share maybe they have finally hit their peak.

[BreadWinner]

I think the traders and the world as a whole have become comfortable with the amount of food being produced. They have all come to expect a bumper crop every year, BUT the BIG QUESTION is what happens when the worlds top crop producers all have a hick-up at the same time. What will grain prices do? I think were going to find out sooner than we think.

[ajl]

It really doesn't matter because Brazil can only export 75 million tonnes or so due to infrastructure constraints much like Canada. There are enough seeded acres there that they will get there even with dry weather. The world is going to run out of food is always amusing because if that was a real threat we could stop with the ethanol mandate as just eat the food instead of making booze for the car.

[Partners]

We were told 40 yrs ago that the world is going to run out of food..As long as there is 1 extra seed in the bin..the world will not panic...

[jake550]

I think that ship has sailed for another decade or more. Was all trumped up bs to begin with. Time for farming to get back to how it used to be. The amount of food wasted is more than enough to offset any "shortages" in the foreseeable future. Then again that's just my opinion and I'm wrong about 50% of the time.

[SASKFARMER3]

The recent dryer than normal rainfall pattern in central, eastern, and southeastern Brazil has many farmers worried about the potential yields of their early maturing soybeans, says a post on soybeasandcorn.com. For the last several weeks, the rainfall in this region of Brazil has been in the form of isolated afternoon thunderstorms which have not been heavy enough or widespread enough to erase the building moisture deficit. The temperatures in the region have also been higher than normal increasing the water demand for the crop.
In the municipality of Unai, which is located in western Minas Gerais, farmers are reporting that it has not rained for approximately three weeks and the temperatures have been hotter than normal. The biggest impact thus far has been on the early maturing soybeans that were planted during the second half of Sept.. Farmers in the region had expected the early maturing soybeans to yield 60 sacks per hectare (3,600 kg/ha or 52 bu/acre), but they have lowered their expectations to approximately 50 sacks per hectare (3,000 kg/ha or 43.5 bu/acre).

[SASKFARMER3]

Early soybean yields in Paraguay disappoint. The early 2014/15 soybean harvest has started in Paraguay with an estimated 10% of the crop harvested. The soybeans that are being harvested were planted in late Aug. or early Sept. Early yield results have been disappointing probably due to the dry weather that occurred during Oct. The yields being reported thus far are in the range of 1,000 to 1,200 kg/ha lower than average (a reduction of 14 to 17 bu/acre).