The canola marketing fell off the bottom of the page so I am post a new thread. At least for me, pretty interesting action right now. I will note changes in old/new crop spreads. Others have asked is a sustained push to $460 is possible on the March. Will the May/July keep up?
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It looks like farmer selling is putting a lid on price at $452. We're trading in step with bean oil, not beans. I think we're going to trade down to close the inversion but Monday is likely to prove me wrong. Something big is being set up one way or the other. -
I was looking at the $10 inverse between Mar and Jul a couple of days ago and was thinking that can't be sustainable, I better buy that. Never did. Its now $3.70. That would have been easy money. Good on ado for getting the timing right on his basis roll.Comment
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Below is this weeks COPA weekly canola and soybean futures board crush margin. I follow them for trends.
[URL="http://copaonline.net/"]weekly board crush[/URL]Comment
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A 50% margin drop in the last 6 months. A lot less profits at these levels, a signal?
If there is any relevence to the chart based on how they come up with the numbers? But a guide, none-the-less.Comment
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I priced a small basis contract I had from fall today at just over $10 net. Squared away the stupid $425 Mar calls I had sold during harvest by buying some Feb 440 calls. Worst case on those damn things is up $5 now. I still get to play if the bottom falls out next week. Held on to 10 short futures at $440. I think I can sleep for a couple of nights now.Comment
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Have to admit, I don't fully understand.
Hard to play when I don't know the rules.
ado, how would you say you've averaged
over the last few years?
Ahead
Even
Behind
?Comment
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No more jan delivery anywhere.Comment
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Farmaholic, last year I shit the bed and averaged just over $9 at the bin. The year before I was probably pretty average. Sold near the top the two previous. I have an aversion to locking anything in that's not already in the bin so I've missed a few opportunities. I'm still learning the details of trading options. As I go I've started to make some rules to follow to minimize the hurt. This winter I'm trying to make $3-4K a month speculating as a source of off farm income. I've got a way to go but it's coming together and it keeps my mind sharp over the winter. I've developed a new fondness for short dated (<2 weeks before expiry) covered calls, especially if you can pick up the futures position a few dollar under the strike, it's quick low risk money.Comment
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No more jan delivery anywhere.Comment
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