Canola Technicals

[ado089]

With little in the way of news coming for the next little while Canola should trade a little more off technicals. Looking at March the MACD and divergence sure turned up but the RSI is tapping on the the top. What do you brilliant minds think the move will be over the next couple of weeks.

[charliep]

I note there is no carry/a slight inverse in the futures months. I don't know when companies will roll their positions to March but will be very soon if not already. Basis are about $20 under (Alberta).

For what it is worth, I think canola will struggle to make a run over resistance at $440/tonne. I suspect there is a lot of canola for sale at $10/bu ($440/tonne) so the heavy lifting will come on the basis side. Soyoil remains weak. Soymeal continues to hold but I think it will head lower in the new year as there is more certainy in the Brazilian crop.

My two bits to get discussion going.

[farming101]

Short term technicals positive. Total open interest isn't rising and yearend doldrums should kick in soon, so no reason technically for fireworks.
Fundamentally, west coast stocks are low-supportive.
No reason for canola to drop for the next little while.
Crazy world conditions could say otherwise.
Not a buyer here. On a mild pullback, maybe.
DYODD

[sumdumguy]

Is $9.50 a fair price for Canola?

[mustardman]

You can't buy a pound of seed for that, so either the elevator price is too low Or the Seed price is Way too high.
Wonder the roi is on $ 12 canola seed ?

[bigzee]

Offered -15 Mar, 9.58 bu
Haven't sold a bu yet, like everyone 10 is our favourite number. IMO I think it's weeks away and maybe won't happen. Unless things fall apart in the SA bean crop, 10 will be hard to achieve.
Be interesting to see if it doesn't get to 10 how it will reflect acres for 15?

[SASKFARMER3]

Acres will be way down in 2015. Seed sales are low.

[hobbyfrmr]

Wait for $9.80/bushel then "pull the trigger".

You won't do it in the way up, then you will miss $9.94/bushel because you are very busy, so then you can catch it on the way back down at $9.80.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

[Guest]

$9.86 for jan. del. at bunge in nipawin today

[Oliver88]

Planning to start selling at $10.50.

[HFL]

Many, many tonnes targeted at 10 bucks. If it gets there it won't be there for long.

[charliep]

Oliver88

Always curious how farmers include cost of carry in their pricing decisions. What is your timeframe for the $10.50/bu? If someone offered you $10.50/bushel for July delivery, would lock the price in? I ask because I am curious how farmers include interest cost, storage and risk in their pricing decisions.

[tweety]

"Acres will be way down in 2015. Seed sales are low. "

And how did you determine that? Hopeful guess?

[farmaholic]

Here's a thought, everybody should put $11 targets in. See if the price goes PAST $10.

Someone else brought this up a while back.

So now they know the "least" your willing to accept and how many bushels at that price. I still say this effectively keeps them from using the futures market. What did the other fellows say? Free call options? Their work is done, they just have to wait for when the time is right for them to trigger YOUR offer. Your already at the table waiting for them to show up. Ya.....

[farmaholic]

Charlie the interest will be determined if you just putting the money in the bank or need it to pay down debt or operating loans. Storage? John says we get paid for storage, not so much this year (now anyway) there is little carry. Storage risk? Know what you put in the bin. Canola at 7% and cooled is good to go...

I like deferred delivery contracts (canola) everything is known. No "basis games". No futures risk of turning against you and hopefully the delivery period is honored.