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Wheat! why our price is low.

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    Wheat! why our price is low.

    US Oil Pushes Canadian Wheat Off The Tracks
    Canadian grain exports to the US have fallen sharply as railways expand the more lucrative cross-border crude oil shipments, a shift that Canada’s farmers say is pushing their crops to lower priced overseas markets, says the Wall Street Journal.
    The shift of Canadian grain abroad is likely to prop up prices for US farmers and consumers, analysts say. In particular, wheat growers in states such as North Dakota and Minnesota could see higher bids for supplies from US buyers with less access to cheaper wheat across the border.
    The decline in grain exports is an unintended consequence of recent regulatory changes aimed at guaranteeing farmers rail time in the face of stiff competition from crude by rail. Those changes aren’t always helping farmers, as rail companies look for quicker journeys for grain to meet federal requirements, sending cargoes to ports in Vancouver and along the St Lawrence River.
    Egypt's GASC picked up 180,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender Thursday, two cargoes being Russian origin and one of French. The prices paid were significantly cheaper than their last purchase, and it was particularly interesting to see Russian wheat be competitive again, said one analyst. Some are suggesting that this was a "let's get it sold and shipped whilst we still can" move.


    Is Russia closer to intervening in wheat market? "News eventually began to trickle out that a Russian ag minister made statements indicating they would attempt to reduce exports and would eventually raise Russian intervention prices to keep the domestic market supplied," said Benson Quinn. That's the first time that there's been anything but a flat denial from Russia that this sort of move could be on the cards, even if it has been widely rumoured.
    It has projected India’s wheat production at a record 95.9 million tonnes against 93.5 million last year. The cause for the US agency’s optimism is unknown since sowing of wheat, a rabi or winter crop, is trailing this year. Hm throw out a big crop even if its late.

    Still their are some who believe the winter crop has problems in Russia and USA.
    Wheat futures recorded solid gains. There’s more concern about winterkill in Russia and forecasts for the US Plains over the next week do show less rainfall than originally expected

    Ah wheat what a crop.

    #2
    You watching wheat this morning?

    Comment


      #3
      Yup but graincos are on March futures.

      Hey do the fx on that and see the numbers.

      86.5 cent dollar on 6.70 Dec equals 7.75cdn. Well.....no it doesn't.

      Is someone short?

      Comment


        #4
        I phoned Ardent Mills in Stoon the other day and asked if they were buying #1 mid pro hrsw. 'Absolutely' they said, 'good wheat is short supply' but only offered $6.10. I said your not looking to buy your looking to steal it...
        There was silence on the other end. The truth hurts.

        Comment


          #5
          Northern tier states bidding 5.88usd net which is 6.80 cdn net.

          Not sure how an open market that has the same practices as when the cwb was mandatory is any better.

          Comment


            #6
            Another article showing the need for more oil pipelines.

            Move oil through pipelines.....keep grain on the tracks.

            Comment


              #7
              It's Dec 12th and Dec Minnie wheat at 6.70, about 46 over the Mar.
              Open interest in one contract.
              5,000 bushels.

              It has nothing to do with the cash market at this point.

              Comment


                #8
                if U.S. northern tier bid equals 6.80, that's what, maybe 6.50 fob farm?

                If local bid is 5.88 and U.S. bid equals 6.50, why even talk about the local bid? What is weird is that people keep selling to the lower local bidder.

                The best way to correct it is to avoid it.

                Comment


                  #9
                  On previous post - should read

                  Open interest IS one contract.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Furrow , nice people don't do what you did.

                    No really. Good for you for calling them on it.
                    I had a marketing rep redder than a ripe tomato a couple of days ago. About their offer to producers who wanted to market their #5 durum IN CONDO.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      John , in order to get all these awsome year end prices on some inputs , guys have to sell something . You are very correct about looking around . They are trying to squeeze every farmers balls just before Christmas from both sides - undervalued grains and oilseeds and over priced inputs - it's a blatant rip off from both ends right now.
                      All 4 locals must have absolutely no need for hrsw at this time - hopefully that changes in the new year.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        furrow your starting to sound like me. Good on you for calling the guy out in Saskatoon.
                        Had the fert salesman out and the agrologist talking fert needs for 2015. Didn't like when I said I was done going for broke at 60 plus and 40 was my new goal. Why was first question then your not joking was the second.
                        I'm sick and tired of this mentality that you have to grow a crop, you just have to and pay pay pay.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Sf3, volume will get a farmer through times of lower prices or poorer quality.
                          You have land payments, machinery payments, salaries and fixed costs. You need to maximize inputs to do your best to grow a high yeild. You need to protect your fixed cost investment .
                          Volume wins every time.
                          35 bu wheat x 6.50 = $227.50/acre.
                          50 bu wheat x 6.50 = $325.00/acre.
                          Which yeild do you prefer?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Ah grasshopper if we all dropped our expectations back to 40 guess what they would run out and that's what the worlds farmers need to do. Drop production quit this game that we have to produce more to feed the world. Reality is the world doesn't give a shit if we feed them or not. Its a game every one wins except the farmer.
                            Fertilizer is prime example they know we have no money do to low prices so they are creating shortages etc. Ah the market works bull shit.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Lets be realistic if we increase our fertilizer then we have a heavier canopy which then requires fungicide and it needs growth regulators so it will stand. Win win for input suppliers. We produce more grain the price drops and we try to produce even more grain. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I am with you sf3.

                              Comment

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