Crop Planning 2015! and selling in 2016.

[SASKFARMER3]

So what's really out their, I for one have used up any decent price locked in for 2015 production and now will have to deal with the current prices being offered. I have a number that is needed for cash for commitments till xmas of 2015. But 2016 is the year in question.
Sept and October Canola is basically $9.12 today. Wheat a #2 is $6.21 for the same period. Oats has no action and barley well malt is like a secret mission who knows. That's almost back to 25 year old prices with 2015 costs.
So a 50 canola will pay you $456 a acre a 40 is $364 a 30 is $273 and a disaster is $182. But if you get the disaster by a frost or drought the price should move higher due to a shortage but then soy in usa and brazil could yield higher again and you in the shitter.
Wheat is similar a 50 gives $310.00 a 40 gives 248 a 30 gives 186 and a 20 is $122.
Businesses are wondering why the farmers aren't out buying new trucks and cars and tractors and drills. Dah real easy to figure it out. With prices like they are a year out and today. The good times are definitely done.
Now yes if I was in SW or W Sask I would drop My canola acres in Half and increase durum plus throw in a few thousand lentils,and do a contract for next fall off todays prices.
But the mud zone has other issues. Fusarium has taken durum off our farm as a favorite crop to grow. Way to much disease and all the spray in the world cant get us a decent grade.
Now they want us to prepay fert for 2015 crop who the hell even knows what acres will be able to seed in 2015.
Rent has peaked and so has land values. Ah farming what a wonderful way to spend money.
Any Ideas, Yes maybe sit back and do nothing is a idea! Plan for a 40 bushel crop if better your happy if less by 10 not bad and quit with the go for broke 60 across the board.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ladies and Gentleman I have come to the conclusion. Growing more is good for one group and that's everyone except us farmers.
So Officially I'm leaving the More is better crowd. Or the Grow for broke crowd and am heading back to the basics. 8 Years of shit weather kind of does that to you.
Basically fertilize for 40 not 60 across the board and who gives a shit. Drop seed treatments for later seeded crops and Back to low priced generic or close to it. Just roundup for burn off dropping express.
Canola seed is like a drug so back to basics on half acreage meaning cheapest seed out their and then half at a good variety. Hooked.
Soil test show its could work out very well. Pig shit will happen. Budget is slashed by half a mill.
Ah what a feeling to join the less is better crowd.

[bucket]

Now if you talk the rest of the guys full of piss and vinegar to join the club we would be better off.

Some guys read this and they will swing for the fences.

70 bpa of garbage and expect everyone to blend it off so they can smell new paint.

[SASKFARMER3]

I don't know I think their is lots of BTOs who are going to get a surprise if the weather changes. We get back to normal and all this expensive shit hits the fan. Im just tired of spending millions to make piss all.
New varieties have done shit all for help but definitely helped pad the seed company balance sheet.
I hate the CWB but when the only game in town is private family owned companies that control our price you know your pretty well F$%Ked. Hell when we owned the one of three high lift sprayer in three RMs with 3 other guys as competitors it was easy in a midge year ask the world and you got it. All because the farmer was scared he would loose some yield.
Same as today in the grain markets no competitions the big boys let you think your in control but its easy to see who really pulls the strings.
Ah farming the greatest BS industry.

[hobbyfrmr]

Volume will get you through times of lower prices or lower grades/poor quality. That's why farmer. Always try their best to grow a big crop.

[fjlip]

But enough volume over a lot of acres and low prices stay around longer. Catch 22, we can be our worst nightmare.

[bucket]

And then throw in a quality issue.

There were thousands of acres of 50bpa #1 CWAD until the rain hit.

[Horse]

Sask3 you finaly see the light and talk the talk but the proof will be in the walking it..

[SASKFARMER3]

Fert deals are in final days and yes going with my soul tests recommendations and no top up to 60 bushel average! Let the boys know I'm using just roundup in spring! Expensive liberty seed cut in half generics for wheat will be ordered xmas! Soy is wild card along with barly oats acreage but wheat and canola are pegged!
Long time till spring but why work for the Fert Chen seed and dealers with no profit sharing back! Time will tell if this is the strategy bug I cang get my head around putting a bunch of money down a rat hole!

[malleefarmer]

forward sold wheat for 2015 nov harvest yesterday $300 per tonne roughly $270 on farm 10 to 11.5% protein our standard bread and butter wheat spreads were lousy for higher grades but was fixed grade contract.

[SASKFARMER3]

Really what's your basis and durum or spring and where!

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry mSllee no glasses today our best is 6.30 now east sask nimber 2 13

[Hopperbin]

Mallee your going to need a lot of canadian wheat to upgrade that low protein wheat.

[Hopperbin]

I know you will grow higher protien and pocket a premium. Just razing you. Just not a premium over canadian wheat. Right canadians???? Well I am planning no canola. 25 percent grean peas. 75 percent flax Minus 2 quarters hrsw. Leaving beans to the experts.

[Hopperbin]

Oh yes forgot 25 canary. 25 green peas. 50 flax minus wheat planting seed.